Kalshi Dominates Prediction Markets with Record $9.8B Volume in February

Prediction markets just hit a new gear—and one platform is leaving the rest in the dust.

The Volume Speaks Volumes

While traditional analysts were busy adjusting their spreadsheets, Kalshi quietly processed a staggering $9.8 billion in wagers last month. That's not just activity—it's a seismic shift in how people price future events.

Beyond Sports and Politics

Forget presidential odds and Super Bowl squares. The real action's in economic indicators, corporate outcomes, and policy decisions—markets that actually move real money. Turns out, when you let people bet on inflation numbers or Fed decisions, they'll throw more cash at it than your average sportsbook sees in a year.

The Cynical Take

Wall Street spends millions on research teams to be wrong about quarterly earnings, while prediction markets crowdsource accuracy for the price of a bet. Maybe the real disruption isn't blockchain—it's admitting that the collective guess beats any single analyst's model. Even the fancy ones with six-figure salaries.

Prediction markets aren't coming. They're already here—and they're writing checks that traditional finance can't cash.

The decrease in volumes tracked the end of Super Bowl sports predictions and affected all markets. Based on Artemis data, Kalshi had a small monthly gain, Polymarket was flat, but the largest outflows were from the Opinion Labs market. 

The shift in activity made Kalshi a leader, while still leaving most active wallet users to choose Polymarket. 

The latest monthly downturn follows a shrinking share for Opinion Labs, from a peak of over 30% to around 3% of prediction volumes. Opinion Labs was the response of BNB Chain, aiming to compete with the leaders, but the platform raised questions about whether its traffic was organic. 

Prediction markets boost Kalshi to $9.8B

Kalshi achieved a total of $9.8B in February, up from January’s record of $8.9B. Kalshi has not even seen one month of drawdowns and has extended its exponential growth stage. 

The market saw a small outflow of weekly transactions, though volumes remained significant. Open interest is close to its peak range at $474M. Sports remains the most active category for Kalshi, followed by crypto price predictions. 

As popularity grew, Kalshi had to investigate more cases of insider trading. Kalshi was also facing user discontent with its market resolution terms and conditions. 

As an exchange, we resolve the market according to the rules, even when there is disagreement with the resolution. I understand many of you are frustrated about the Khamenei market, and I want to clear up a few things along with steps we have taken to improve:

The market rules… pic.twitter.com/4zs23E8QnM

— Tarek Mansour (@mansourtarek_) March 2, 2026

At this stage, Kalshi also showed that its regulated status was key to establishing a leading position. 

Polymarket still leads in transactions, active users

Polymarket remained the leader with the biggest share of transactions. The platform still hosted multiple small bets from retail users. 

Prediction markets took over some of the volume of direct crypto trading, replacing it with 15-minute and 5-minute markets. 

Open interest on Polymarket remains lower, recently breaking above $400M. The platform is still ahead of Opinion Labs, with $91M in open interest. 

Overall, prediction markets still carry over $1B in open interest, approaching the November 2024 record. With innovative prediction markets and Polymarket’s eventual expansion, open interest may break new records. 

Going viral was also key to increased liquidity and trading volumes. Social media was key for viral trading pairs. In the coming month, prediction markets will face increased contentious bets on the situation in the Middle East and the future of the Iranian regime, boosting the influence and usage of major platforms. 

Don’t just read crypto news. Understand it. Subscribe to our newsletter. It's free.