Polymarket and Kaito Launch Prediction Pairs Based on Social Media Mindshare
Forget the fundamentals—now you can bet on the buzz.
Polymarket, the prediction market platform, is teaming up with Kaito, the AI-driven data intelligence firm, to launch a new breed of prediction pairs. The asset? Social media mindshare. The goal? Letting traders speculate on the trajectory of online conversation itself.
From Trending Topic to Trading Ticket
The partnership will see Kaito's real-time analytics—scraping sentiment, volume, and influence metrics from across social platforms—feed directly into Polymarket's prediction markets. Think of it as turning the viral heat around a protocol, founder, or narrative into a tradable instrument. Will discussion around a specific L2 solution double in the next week? Will a key influencer's approval rating plummet? These become yes/no markets with real money on the line.
Data as the New Derivative
This move formalizes what crypto traders have been doing informally for years: scouring Crypto Twitter and Discord for alpha. By quantifying the unquantifiable—the hype cycle—it creates a pure-play on attention economics. It's a cynical but logical evolution in a market where perception often outpaces product, letting you hedge your actual token positions against the fickleness of crowd sentiment.
Ultimately, it's a bet that in modern finance, the narrative isn't just king—it's a sovereign asset class you can short. Just don't expect the SEC to have a ticker for 'viral momentum' anytime soon.
Polymarket to track public attention
Polymarket has mostly focused on organic events and politics for its markets. Attention markets will be a novel way to track trends and influence.
‘These new markets will quantify the volume and changes in public attention based on data from social media,’ said Kaito CEO Yu Hu.
Polymarket and Kaito will still track data across X, TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube, using Kaito’s method of determining mindshare. The tracking will also produce a positive or negative sentiment metric.
Based on the data, Polymarket will be able to launch new pairs, such as the sentiment on companies or VIPs. Polymarket has already launched other markets powered by Kaito, including the tracking of its own mindshare.
Dozens of attention markets are expected in March
Dozens of new attention markets are expected in early March, and thousands by the end of the year. Attention markets can also track individual influencers or KOLs in the crypto space and general social media circles. Polymarket will offer a way to tokenize and trade Internet celebrity events and trends.
Attention markets are yet another trend somewhat similar to current news tokens or content-based memes, which track short-term Internet news or events.
‘It’ll be a completely new experience when people can scroll through social media and realize they can express their views on what they are seeing and take a side with it on these markets,’ said Polymarket’s head of crypto, Thibault Alizard.
Currently, the focus of Polymarket is on specific personalities and events, but it may broaden to AI topics and even more niche Internet events.
Polymarket still carries peak activity
Polymarket still carries near-peak activity based on active wallets and transactions. Most of the platform’s users trade five or more pairs, but a growing number only choose one market.
Most of the bets are made for markets with 40% to 60% probability, with only 0.5% of all bets placed on odds below 5%. Those low-probability bets are used for trading in a small range, often leading to 100% growth.
Polymarket predictions now carry relatively small volumes. The leading pair on potential US strikes on Iran reached a volume of $282M, while the next Fed decision invited over $82M in trading. Other pairs are smaller, with volumes often under $1M.
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