XRP’s SOPR Plunges to 0.96: A Signal of Capitulation or a Classic Buying Opportunity?
XRP holders are officially underwater. The Spent Output Profit Ratio—a key on-chain metric—has dipped below the critical 1.0 threshold, settling at 0.96. That number tells a stark story: the average token sold today is being moved at a loss.
The Psychology of the Red
When SOPR falls under one, market sentiment tilts from greed to fear. It's the point where paper losses become realized, often marking a phase of capitulation. For long-term believers, it's a gut-check moment. For traders, it's a potential contrarian signal flashing in the data—history suggests these zones can precede rebounds, once the weak hands finish selling.
Beyond the Panic, a Pattern
This isn't XRP's first rodeo. Crypto assets are notorious for their volatility cycles, and SOPR readings below one have frequently lined up with local price bottoms. It's the market's brutal way of shaking out speculative excess. While painful for current holders, it resets the ledger, transferring tokens from impatient sellers to patient accumulators—often at a discount Wall Street would call 'distressed.'
The Bigger Picture
Zoom out. Short-term pain metrics like a 0.96 SOPR often ignore the fundamental pipeline: regulatory clarity, adoption deals, and utility development. Price action and on-chain sentiment are lagging indicators, reacting to news the smart money already priced in. Remember, the most profitable trades usually feel the worst at the entry point.
So, is a 0.96 SOPR a death knell or a dinner bell? In crypto, it's often both—just depends which side of the trade you're on. Just ask any traditional finance analyst currently explaining to clients why a digital asset 'with no earnings' has a $30 billion market cap.
Retail holders are dumping XRP while whales hold tight
Right now, XRP’s price sits around $1.42, but whales’ wallets are quiet. Whale-to-exchange Flow is still low, which means they’re not dumping. That’s important. It tells you that the selling is mostly coming from retail investors.
The same thing happened back in December 2025 and January 2026. SOPR was low, price kept dropping, but the big wallets stayed silent. It’s the smaller holders who are panicking.
Back in March and April 2025, whale flows were also quiet, and price stayed soft. Then in July, things suddenly bounced hard.
But when profit-taking kicked in, whales dumped fast. They waited for the top. That pattern matters now. Because the whales are still not selling. They’re waiting.
Even with the price sliding, XRP Ledger is still running big numbers. Messari’s data shows average daily transactions at 1.83 million in Q4 2025, up 3.1% from the quarter before. Active addresses dropped to 49,000.
But while payments fell 8.1% to around 909,000, offer creation ROSE to 42% of the entire mix. That means people are still trading and using the network, even with the loss pressure.
Ripple’s bigger plan is focused on tokenized real-world assets. It’s not about just DeFi numbers anymore. XRPL is being shaped to support tokenized cash, high-grade collateral, and real settlement flows. There’s been real growth here. RWA.xyz reported about $21.41 billion in represented value and nearly $23.87 billion distributed. The tokenized U.S. Treasuries value is now at $10.0 billion.
Ripple wants to pull more of that volume toward XRPL. The plan includes compliance tools built into the network and delivery-versus-payment support. That’s how they’re positioning themselves to handle the next wave of tokenization.
McKinsey expects tokenized markets to grow to $2 trillion by 2030, though BCG and ADDX threw out a much bigger number; $16.1 trillion.
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