CoinShares Report: Bitcoin’s Quantum Computing Threat Dramatically Overstated

Forget the doomsday scenarios—quantum computers aren't breaking Bitcoin's bank anytime soon.

CoinShares, the digital asset investment firm, just dropped a research bombshell that cuts through the quantum hysteria. Their analysis suggests the crypto community has been chasing ghosts.

The Real Timeline: Decades, Not Days

The report slams the panic button, arguing that practical, large-scale quantum machines capable of cracking Bitcoin's SHA-256 encryption remain a distant, theoretical threat. We're talking decades, not the next market cycle. The hardware hurdles are still monumental, and by the time quantum tech matures, crypto protocols will have evolved—they always do.

Security Isn't Static

This isn't a static target. The entire premise ignores crypto's core strength: adaptability. Developers are already working on post-quantum cryptography. The network would likely fork to a quantum-resistant algorithm long before any supercomputer poses a real risk. It's a classic case of tech FOMO driving narrative more than facts.

A Distraction from Real Risks?

Maybe the quantum bogeyman is a convenient distraction. It sounds more sophisticated than worrying about exchange hacks, regulatory overreach, or good old-fashioned human greed—you know, the things that actually move markets and wipe out portfolios. Focusing on sci-fi threats lets the industry ignore the mundane, expensive problems right in front of it.

So, breathe easy, HODLers. Your keys are safer from quantum annihilation than from a phishing email or a poorly timed margin call. The real threat to your Bitcoin isn't in a lab—it's probably in your own risk management. For now, the quantum narrative looks like another overhyped sell-side story, perfect for generating headlines and consultant fees while the real work of building continues elsewhere.

Individuals in the crypto ecosystem raise concerns about quantum risks to BTC 

Earlier, Chaincode Labs researchers Anthony Milton and Clara Shikhelman shared a study released in May last year proposing that 20% to 50% of the total Bitcoin available in the crypto market could be at risk amid the emergence of quantum technology. 

Nonetheless, in response to this study, CoinShares argued that the suggested numbers incorporate different types of risk with distinct real-world impacts. While pointing out this argument, the leading European investment company focused particularly on legacy Pay-to-Public-Key (P2PK) addresses, a type of ScriptPubKey that locks Bitcoin to a public key. 

Afterwards, the firm anticipated that around 1.6 million BTC, or 8% of the total cryptocurrency available in the market, is held in these addresses. Meanwhile, it is worth noting that only about 10,200 BTC of this estimated amount is kept in sufficiently large accounts that a breach could substantially interrupt the market.

The remaining amount of coins is later widely dispersed across over 32,000 individual UTXOs. On average, this is around 50 BTC per UTXO. Following this discovery, sources argued that it WOULD take almost a lifetime to crack them, even under optimistic quantum conditions.

Apart from these claims, CoinShares also stressed that allegations of a 25% vulnerability frequently involve temporary threats, such as the recycling of exchange addresses, which, according to its Bitcoin Research Lead Christopher Bendiksen, can be resolved with ease.

At this moment, Christopher Wood, the Global Head of Equity Strategy at Jefferies, comments on the topic. He pointed out that he had decided earlier this year to eliminate the entire 10% Bitcoin allocation from his model portfolio due to Chaincode Labs’s significant estimates. Moreover, Wood cited quantum risk as a severe threat to BTC’s value stability, according to a report from a reliable source. 

The report mentioned that, “Wood stated that while GREED & Fear doesn’t think the quantum issue will significantly impact bitcoin prices soon, the idea of bitcoin as a store of value is not as strong for long-term pension portfolios.” 

CoinShares expresses disapproval that threats related to quantum computing are close 

Even after several individuals pointed out that quantum computing threats are approaching, CoinShares still expressed disapproval of the argument. 

Regarding their disapproval, Bendiksen attempted to explain that research demonstrates that, for a successful reversal of a public key to occur in just 24 hours, it would require a cutting-edge quantum computer with 13 million physical qubits.

Its ability is said to be 100,000 times more powerful than the largest machine available today. Notably, one would require a system whose capability is 3 million times greater than the available ones to successfully break a key in just one hour.

“To crack current asymmetric cryptography, you’d need millions of qubits,” said Ledger CTO Charles Guillemet to CoinShares. “Willow, Google’s latest computer, has only 105 qubits. Adding just one more qubit makes it exponentially harder to keep the system stable.” 

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