Polymarket Hits 38.4M Visits in January, Nearly Matching Robinhood’s Traffic
Prediction markets just stole Wall Street's lunch money.
Polymarket—the crypto-based platform where users bet on everything from elections to pop culture—logged a staggering 38.4 million visits last month. That number puts it within spitting distance of Robinhood, the poster child of mainstream retail investing. Forget waiting for quarterly earnings—this is real-time sentiment, traded 24/7.
The Data Doesn't Lie
January's traffic surge wasn't a fluke. It signals a fundamental shift in how people engage with financial information. Instead of trusting analyst upgrades or CEO soundbites, a growing crowd is putting real money on decentralized outcome markets. The platform bypasses traditional gatekeepers entirely, offering a global, permissionless arena for price discovery.
Why This Is a Bigger Deal Than It Sounds
Robinhood built its empire on democratizing stock trading. Polymarket is democratizing the prediction of events themselves. Its traffic spike reveals a deep, unmet demand for speculative instruments that traditional finance either ignores or actively suppresses. It turns every headline, every political speech, every cultural moment into a potential trading opportunity—no brokerage account required.
The crowd's wisdom—or madness—now has a direct market price. While suits in corner offices parse Fed statements, Polymarket users are already pricing in the odds. It's a brutally efficient, often cynical, reflection of collective belief. And it's growing fast enough to give the old guard a genuine headache. After all, why read a equity research report when you can just see what the global betting market thinks?
Polymarket still ahead of Kalshi in site visits
Polymarket is still ahead of Kalshi on several metrics, including nearly four times as much site visits. Most of the Polymarket traffic comes from the USA, after the app started offering prediction pairs.
Polymarket is still drawing international traffic, but has complied with US regulations to offer its brand of probability trading.
Multiple prediction apps are competing for the top spot. Polymarket has broadened its outreach on social media, while also encouraging smart betting. The platform gained an edge on Kalshi by allowing smart betting and not playing against ‘sharps’. The two apps are competing for user appeal with shopping vouchers and even a free grocery store.
Most of the expansion in the past month came from retail predictions, totaling over $12B in trading volumes. Polymarket remains the leader in current events and politics predictions, with a big lead against Kalshi outside the sports predictions market.
Mobile usage picked up for Polymarket in the past three months, with gradual growth on all devices. Polymarket search volumes also moved ahead of Kalshi in the past three months.
Polymarket rises on small-scale bets in January
Polymarket’s activity was driven by the most diverse prediction markets, categorized as ‘other’.
Sports, politics, and crypto made up the bulk of activity. Top bets as of February 6 included sports events, the potential US strikes against Iran, as well as a short-term 15-minute market on the performance of BTC.
Polymarket is growing based on highly active players making more than five predictions on average. The platform uses a mix of bots and organic activity, while being heavily promoted through copy-trading and influencers.
Most of the active trading on Polymarket happens on contested issues, where the odds are between 40% and 60%. The other big subset is almost-resolved issues with a probability of 80% to 90%. Polymarket benefits from both high-visibility issues, as well as bot trading on niche markets or small-scale predictions.
Open interest on Polymarket has also expanded to a new peak, hovering around $411M. The current open interest is still below the November 2024 record, but remains sustainable and retains a rising trend.
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