Nintendo Holds Firm on Switch 2 Sales Forecast as Momentum Stabilizes

Nintendo's playing it cool—no forecast bumps for the Switch 2, even as the console finds its footing. The gaming giant's sticking to its guns, signaling a steady-as-she-goes approach in a market that's always hungry for the next big thing.

The Strategy: Confidence or Caution?

Leaving sales targets untouched isn't a sign of weakness; it's a statement. It says the initial launch surge is over, and now it's about the long game—building a library, cultivating a community, and moving units quarter after predictable quarter. It's the antithesis of the 'hype-and-dump' cycle that plagues other tech sectors.

What Steady Momentum Really Means

For Nintendo, 'steady' is the sweet spot. It means the hardware is in the wild, the software pipeline is primed, and the dreaded post-launch slump has been avoided. They've transitioned from selling to the faithful to capturing the mainstream—the real revenue driver.

The Finance Jab

Meanwhile, over in crypto-land, traders would've minted an NFT of a 'revised forecast' and pumped its value 300% on pure speculation. Nintendo's boring, beautiful consistency is a relic in a world obsessed with artificial moonshots.

The bottom line? Nintendo isn't chasing fireworks. It's building a fortress, one solid, predictable brick at a time. In an era of volatile buzz, that's its most powerful play.

Game titles lift Nintendo’s performance despite softer revenue

For the third quarter of fiscal year ending March 2026, Nintendo reported revenue of 806.32 billion yen, an 86% year-on-year increase, and a net profit of 159.93 billion yen, a 24% increase from the previous year, well ahead of analyst projections.

According to Cryptopolitan, the Nintendo Switch set a new record as the fastest selling video game hardware device in US history. According to data, Nintendo Switch 2 sold 1.6 million units in June 2025. This surpassed the previous record set by the PlayStation 4 in November 2013 with 1.1 million consoles.

Nintendo’s flagship titles were instrumental in driving hardware sales. ‘Mario Kart World’ has sold approximately 14 Million copies since the launch of the console, while ‘Donkey Kong Bananza’ has sold approximately 4.25 Million copies, representing the two largest selling titles on the new platform to date.

However, Nintendo’s stock price continues to be under pressure, with the stock having declined approximately 30% since hitting an all-time high of over 14,000 yen in August following the June launch of Super Mario Ultimate. This decline has come as investors have concerns about sustainability versus the short-term sales reporting.

A Tokyo-based portfolio manager said there was “a serious concern that holiday sales WOULD be disappointing this year.”

Rising costs put margins and pricing strategy to the test

Investors have been watching cost pressures closely, including the dramatic increase in memory prices due to worldwide investment in AI. In addition, supply chain issues related to US trade tensions present challenges to hardware manufacturers regarding the future of their businesses.

Jefferies analyst Atul Goyal believes Nintendo is in good shape at this point.

“[Nintendo has] large amounts of inventory and long-term contracts to help protect them, at least for the next few quarters.”

Goyal.

For instance, the US price of the new Switch 2 is $449.99, while the Japanese price for the same Switch is around $320. According to Serkan Toto, founder of Kantan Games, he believes it would be much more simplistic for Sony to raise prices than for Nintendo to do so, since the Nintendo Switch 2 is not considered a premium product.

Additionally, Goldman Sachs analyst Minami Munakata stated he believes “that the Nintendo Switch 2 could become unprofitable are not accurate,” pointing out Nintendo’s long history of avoiding hardware losses.

Switch 2 was reportedly Nintendo’s biggest launch in the UK. The console also outperformed the original Switch by over two to one after launch. Switch 2 also allegedly outsold the Nintendo 3DS at launch, which was previously the firm’s biggest sale.

Nintendo plans to release “Mario Tennis Fever” in February and “Pokémon Pokopia” in March, with investors watching whether fresh titles can extend momentum into the next fiscal year.

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