Tesla’s Autonomy Push Reshapes How Analysts Value the Stock

Wall Street's spreadsheet jockeys are scrambling to rewrite their models.

The Autonomy Premium

Forget just counting cars. Tesla's relentless drive toward full self-driving is forcing analysts to weigh software margins against steel. The old metrics—deliveries, factory output—are becoming background noise to the potential of a fleet that earns money while its owners sleep.

Valuation Vertigo

It's creating a schism. Traditionalists cling to discounted cash flows from today's business. The converts are building models on subscription revenue, robotaxi networks, and AI licensing fees—numbers that make current earnings look like a rounding error. The stock swings on every AI Day demo, not just quarterly deliveries.

The New Math

The bet is simple: autonomy transforms Tesla from a cyclical automaker into a high-margin tech platform. Every vehicle becomes a recurring revenue node. Success means margins that would make a SaaS company blush. Failure means... well, it means you're just another car company with okay EVs and an overpriced stock.

One cynical fund manager put it best: "They're not selling a car; they're selling a dream that lets analysts justify any price target." The market is buying it—for now. The real test comes when the software has to deliver outside a controlled demo.

Robot numbers and chip goals now drive Tesla’s future

William Blair’s Jed Dorsheimer ran the math on what Elon is trying to pull off. If Tesla makes 500,000 Optimus bots per year and sells each one for $50,000, that’s $25 billion a year.

That’s not some far-off fantasy either. Elon says Optimus V3 is dropping this year, and production starts in 2027. That’s real product, real numbers, and real capital going into it.

On the chip side, TerraFab is a giant project that Tesla is handling on its own. That means the company won’t depend on outside chip suppliers.

Elon wants full control, from hardware to software. And it’s not for fun. It’s to run AI, robotics, and the autonomy systems for everything Tesla plans to roll out over the next few years.

Elon also said Tesla might keep making semitrucks. Maybe a few Roadsters. But the big delivery-focused EV plans? He didn’t mention any. That story’s done.

The market already priced this in. Tesla stock is trading at a forward P/E of 196. General Motors and Ford? They’re sitting in the single digits. That tells you everything. Wall Street doesn’t think Tesla is like the others. Because it isn’t.

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