ASML’s Q4 Orders Skyrocket - 2026 Outlook Shatters Market Expectations
ASML just dropped a bomb on the semiconductor sector. Their latest numbers aren't just good—they're a full-blown forecast-beating spectacle that's sending shockwaves through the chipmaking ecosystem.
The Surge That No One Saw Coming
Forget gradual growth. ASML's fourth-quarter order book didn't just climb; it surged. The sheer scale of the demand, particularly for their next-generation EUV systems, paints a picture of an industry scrambling to build capacity. Foundries and logic players are placing bets—big ones—on a future that needs more advanced chips than anyone predicted just a few quarters ago.
2026: The New Battleground
But the real story is the guidance. Looking ahead to 2026, ASML's outlook lands squarely above what the analyst herd had penciled in. This isn't a minor adjustment; it's a fundamental recalibration of the growth trajectory for the entire lithography supply chain. It signals unwavering confidence that the demand drivers—AI, high-performance computing, the relentless march of digitalization—aren't fading. They're accelerating.
The Ripple Effect
This news transcends a single company's earnings report. ASML sits at the absolute choke point of advanced semiconductor manufacturing. When they raise their forecast, it's a direct read-through to the capex plans of every major chipmaker on the planet. It implies tighter equipment lead times, sustained pricing power, and a tech arms race with no finish line in sight. For investors, it's a clear signal: the foundational tools for the digital economy are in hyper-demand.
A cynical fund manager might grumble that beating lowered expectations is the oldest trick in the book—but even they can't argue with the order book. The machines that print the future are sold out, and the line to get them just got longer.
Customers ramp up chip orders as AI demand stays hot
For the current quarter, ASML expects net sales to land between €8.2 billion and €8.9 billion. The company just posted €9.7 billion in net sales for Q4, slightly above estimates. Net profit came in at €2.84 billion, a bit under the €3.01 billion analysts expected.
Still, no one’s pulling back. “I think it’s primarily on the basis of the more robust view that they have when it comes to demand for AI, which seems to be more sustainable from their vantage point,” Dassen said. “That recognition has led some of our customers to really invest in capacity and gear up their plans for medium-term capacity expansion.”
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. also posted another record profit this month. They’re one of ASML’s biggest customers and build chips for names like Nvidia and AMD. Everyone’s clearly ramping up production.
The shortage of memory semiconductors is also pushing up prices. That crunch is expected to last through 2027, and big players like Samsung and SK Hynix are expected to expand chip production over the next two years. More chips mean more machines. Barclays said it expects SK Hynix to buy 12 EUV machines from ASML in 2026.
ASML confirmed that EUV machine revenue will go up a lot in 2026 compared to last year, as demand for advanced semiconductors keeps rising. These are the most high-tech machines ASML sells.
Layoffs hit as China sales forecast drops hard
Even with record orders, ASML is cutting jobs. The company said it’s letting go of about 1,700 workers, mostly in the Netherlands, with some cuts in the United States.
The decision comes as parts of the company became “less agile,” and the layoffs are meant to fix that, the company said on Wednesday.
China is also turning into a weak spot. Because of export restrictions, ASML isn’t allowed to send its most advanced EUV machines to Chinese customers. That’s hitting its outlook. In 2026, China is expected to make up just 20% of total sales, down from 33% in 2025.
ASML’s position in the chip supply chain is still strong, especially as global demand for AI and high-end memory chips pushes manufacturers to expand. The company’s stock is already up nearly 30% this year, and big orders like these are the reason why.
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