Base Leverages New US Crypto-Friendly Regulations to Launch Breakout Prediction Markets Platform

Base just flipped the script. The Ethereum L2, backed by Coinbase, is launching a native prediction markets platform—and it's doing so by capitalizing on a recent, seismic shift in U.S. regulatory posture.

Regulatory Tailwinds, Not Headwinds

For years, the U.S. treated crypto innovation like a compliance hazard. Projects built defensively, if they built stateside at all. That era is fading. A clearer, more pragmatic framework from Washington has given builders like Base the green light to deploy complex, on-chain financial primitives without looking over their shoulder. Prediction markets—where users bet on real-world outcomes—are now in play.

Why Prediction Markets Matter

This isn't about sports betting. It's about information aggregation. Prediction markets harness the 'wisdom of the crowd' to forecast events—election results, product launches, macroeconomic data. They create a liquid, global truth machine. By baking them directly into its secure, low-cost layer, Base isn't just adding a feature; it's embedding a new oracle system into the heart of its ecosystem.

The Infrastructure Play

Base's move is a classic infrastructure power grab. Provide the rails for speculation, and you capture the value of every transaction. It draws developers, liquidity, and users seeking utility beyond simple swaps and yields. In a landscape crowded with generic DeFi clones, a native prediction platform is a serious differentiator.

A Calculated Bet on the Future

The launch signals more than a product rollout. It's a declaration that on-chain finance is ready to absorb real-world complexity. Base is betting that accessible, regulated prediction tools will drive the next wave of mainstream adoption. After all, what better way to onboard the masses than by letting them bet on their convictions? It's a cynical but time-tested truth of finance: people will learn a new system fast if there's a potential profit at the end of it.

How does the Breakout dApp work? 

Every week on the platform, the team will list the top 20 CT accounts ranked by mindshare and ask if the CT account’s mindshare will rise the following week. 

Each round will reportedly resolve against a transparent scoreboard, the week-over-week mindshare change.

“Clear outcomes, a new round every week, bull and bear takes, and new accounts can break out fast,” the team claimed in the thread. 

For now, the platform is only available to non-US residents, and terms and conditions apply to users currently allowed to participate.

The idea has already caught on in some circles, and there are already posts from influencers talking about who people have been betting on. Some names that have come up include Ansem, but this is only based on popularity. 

To sustain that fame, once a KOL breaks into the top 20, they will have to drop more banger posts, viral tales, or even viral articles on X. 

Earlier today, one of the founders behind the Breakout dApp revealed that they had added $30,000+ of initial liquidity. He implied that this was a chance to make some quick cash “if you think someone is going to go viral.” 

Regulatory environment has profited Base and prediction markets 

The US regulatory environment is no longer what it used to be. Under President Donald Trump, it has come to embrace the crypto sector, and Coinbase, the company behind the Base network, is better off for it. 

The passage of the GENIUS Act provided legal clarity for event contracts, allowing platforms like Kalshi to operate in alignment with a legal framework. The regulatory pivot has attracted many, including institutions like Franklin Templeton and BlackRock, both of which have launched tokenized money market funds on Base-compatible chains. 

Many of those institutions are also interested in Base’s ability to tokenize RWAs and integrate them into prediction markets. These tokenized assets can then be used as collateral in prediction contracts. 

Base’s infrastructure also supports the tokenization of stablecoins, one of the famous applications of crypto, which means that as uses for them continue to grow and standardize, Base will remain relevant.

If you're reading this, you’re already ahead. Stay there with our newsletter.