Rick Rieder Surges Ahead for Fed Role as Kevin Warsh Stumbles

Washington's favorite parlor game just got a major shakeup. The race for a key Federal Reserve position is tilting decisively, with one heavyweight gaining ground as another loses his footing.

The New Frontrunner

Rick Rieder's candidacy is picking up serious steam. Market whispers and corridor chatter in D.C. point to a groundswell of support, positioning the BlackRock fixed-income chief as the pragmatic choice for a central bank navigating a digital-economic transition. His deep institutional knowledge and mainstream asset management pedigree are suddenly looking like assets, not liabilities.

The Fading Contender

Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh's prospects are cooling. Once considered a formidable candidate, his momentum has stalled. The political calculus appears to be shifting away from his particular brand of monetary policy perspective, leaving allies scrambling to regroup. In the high-stakes world of Fed appointments, losing ground often means you're out of the race.

It's a classic D.C. pivot—where yesterday's frontrunner becomes today's afterthought, all while the financial press feasts on the speculation. Because nothing moves markets like the promise of a new person to blame for the next crisis.

How Polymarket traders are betting

According to the latest data from Polymarket, more people are betting on Rieder being selected as the new Federal Reserve Chair to replace Jerome Powell, who is expected to end his current term in May of this year. 

On Polymarket, Rieder is currently in the lead with 49%, and Kevin Warsh trails with odds of him being chosen lower at 28%. Christopher Waller follows Warsh with a 10% odd, while Kevin Hassett has a 7% odd.

Traders on Kalshi put Rieder’s odds slightly higher at 50% while Warsh is priced in at 30% and Waller at 10%. It is not surprising that Rick Rieder is currently in the lead among those whose names have been floated for the position. 

His experience as BlackRock’s Chief Investment Officer for Global Fixed Income, which has seen him overseeing over $2 trillion in bonds and related assets, is expected to be very valuable. He is a prominent figure on Wall Street, famous for his views on housing, small businesses, and monetary policy.  

His view on interest rates especially leans towards lower rates, something people could use a lot of going forward. 

Why traders think it is likely to be Rick Rieder

Up until last week, Rick Rieder was considered a long-shot candidate for the position, with Polymarket traders ranking the probability of it being him at a mere 3%. By Friday afternoon, things had changed, and his odds suddenly jumped past 40%, which put him ahead of former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and made him the leading contender. 

He is now being called a dark horse candidate, but the main reason his chances are looking better has been because he seemed to receive an endorsement from TRUMP and White House economic advisor Kevin Hassett, another finalist for the role. 

Trump reportedly called him a “very impressive” guy following a recent meeting between the two, and Hassett tagged him “the best bond guy” in an interview with CNBC.

Hassett is currently Trump’s closest advisor on economic matters and was previously the top contender for Fed chair. However, his odds have been fading since news started circulating that the president may prefer that he hold down his current role. 

According to Trump, during an interview at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, he is close to making his decision and the candidate field, which once had 11 candidates, has now whittled “down to maybe one.” 

It was after Trump made the comment that Kalshi traders raised the odds for Rieder getting the nomination to 33%, which was around double where they were at the beginning of the week, but still less than the odds that pointed to Former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh as the winner. 

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, who has been in charge of the candidate screening, also said that he expects Trump will announce a decision soon.

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