ASML Stock Primed for 70% Surge as AI Wave Accelerates Chip Demand
Forget the hype—this is about the picks and shovels. While everyone chases AI software unicorns, the real money's getting printed in a Dutch factory making machines that print silicon.
The Hardware Engine
ASML doesn't build chatbots or self-driving algorithms. It builds the extreme ultraviolet lithography systems that etch the microscopic circuits onto the chips that power them. No ASML, no advanced semiconductors. No advanced semiconductors, the AI revolution grinds to a halt. It's that simple.
The 70% Catalyst
Analysts see a direct line from the exploding computational demands of large language models and generative AI to ASML's order book. Every tech giant racing to build proprietary AI hardware needs next-generation chips. Those chips need ASML's one-of-a-kind tech. The projected surge isn't speculation—it's basic arithmetic of constrained supply meeting insatiable demand.
A Cynical Footnote
Of course, Wall Street just discovered this 'picks and shovels' narrative—only about a decade into the gold rush. Sometimes the smartest trade is selling gear to the dreamers, especially when the dream requires physics-defying machinery that only one company on earth can provide.
Stock could reach €2,000 in best scenario
If everything goes extremely well, Morgan Stanley thinks ASML stock could reach €2,000. The bank’s main forecast puts the price at €1,400, which ranks as the second-highest prediction among firms tracking the stock on Wall Street, based on Bloomberg records.
The stock went up 1.2% to €1,163 on Friday. Earlier this week, ASML’s total worth crossed $500 billion, making it just the third company from Europe to hit that mark.
Strong earnings from selling specialized machinery to chipmakers FORM the backbone of Morgan Stanley’s positive view. The bank expects ASML will earn roughly €46 for each share in 2027, nearly twice what it made in 2025.
Trade deal and memory chip demand boost outlook
TSMC’s better-than-expected business outlook this week renewed excitement about AI spending. At the same time, American and Taiwanese officials signed a trade agreement that will see Taiwanese semiconductor firms put $500 billion more into U.S. operations.
Memory chip prices are also rising, which means memory makers will expand their factories and need more equipment from ASML, Morgan Stanley noted. Sales to Chinese chipmakers have performed better than anticipated, the analysts added.
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