TD Cowen Slashes Bitcoin Price Target to $440 - What’s Behind the Bearish Move?
Another day, another price target cut—welcome to crypto, where analysts change their minds faster than a trader chasing a meme coin.
TD Cowen just took a red pen to its Bitcoin forecast, dropping the target to $440. That's not a typo. It's a statement.
The Analyst's Knife
No fluffy explanations here. The firm cut. They didn't 'adjust,' 'recalibrate,' or 'moderate expectations.' They cut. It's the kind of decisive move that makes you wonder what they're seeing—or not seeing—in the charts.
Reading Between the Lines
A target that low in 2026 isn't just cautious; it's borderline contrarian. It ignores the usual hype cycles, the ETF inflows, the halving narratives. It's a cold splash of reality, assuming every possible headwind hits at once. Maybe they've been burned before—can't blame them, most traditional finance shops have.
The Street's Reaction? A Shrug.
Let's be real: price targets are more art than science, especially in crypto. One firm's doom is another's buying opportunity. It's all part of the theater that keeps the markets moving—and the commission fees rolling in.
So, does a $440 target matter? To some algorithms, maybe. To the true believers? Probably not. Bitcoin's weathered worse predictions. It'll either prove them wrong or make them look like geniuses. Either way, someone's making money—just probably not at $440.
Strategy snaps up Bitcoin while prices drop
Even though Bitcoin prices have been lower recently, Strategy has not slowed down. The company has been using the dip in Bitcoin prices to buy more. For example, in the week ending January 11, 2026, the firm sold approximately 6.8 million shares of its regular stock and 1.2 million shares of its special preferred stock, designated as STRC. This raised around $1.25 billion. Nearly all of this money was used to buy an extra 13,627 Bitcoins.
The analysts said that many people might have expected Strategy to slow down, since the company’s bitcoin price seemed very low. But Strategy chose to continue buying aggressively. The analysts believe the company made this decision because they expect Bitcoin prices to go up again in the future.
Because most of these new Bitcoin purchases were funded by selling shares close to their current value, they did not increase the “Bitcoin yield” much. In other words, while the company bought more Bitcoins, the benefit for each share was small.
The analysts believe this strategy only works if Bitcoin prices rise, which they consider likely due to improved regulations from governments and stronger economic conditions.
Strategy drives growth and prepares for bigger Bitcoin gains
TD Cowen’s analysts expect Strategy to keep selling shares and preferred stock as long as Bitcoin prices stay low. They predict that by December 2026, the price of Bitcoin could reach around $177,000. By December 2027, the price is expected to increase to approximately $226,000. As prices rise, the Bitcoin yield per share is expected to improve in 2027, meaning each share will represent a greater value of Bitcoin again.
Even though the analysts lowered the price target and expect a smaller Bitcoin yield in the short term, they still think Strategy is a good way for people to invest in Bitcoin. They said the company’s preferred stocks could provide investors with both income and the opportunity to make a profit if the stock price increases. For example, they highlighted the senior STRF preferred shares, which could offer a return of approximately 30%.
The analysts also mentioned news about MSCI, a company that makes indexes for investors. MSCI recently decided not to remove Bitcoin treasury companies, such as Strategy, from its indexes. This is good news for Strategy in the NEAR term. However, the analysts cautioned that uncertainty could persist in the future. They explained that big investors, such as BlackRock, make a significant amount of money from Bitcoin investment products, and sometimes these investors may view companies like Strategy as competitors. This could influence decisions by index makers in the long term.
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