China Shatters Records with $1.2 Trillion Trade Surplus in 2025 as Exports Defy Expectations
China's trade machine just posted a number that rewrites the rulebook—a staggering $1.2 trillion surplus. The world's second-largest economy didn't just beat forecasts; it blew past them, fueled by export resilience and a domestic import scene that stayed suspiciously quiet.
The Export Engine Roars
Forget a soft landing. Chinese exports punched through global headwinds, delivering a performance that left analysts scrambling to update their models. The figures suggest a manufacturing and supply chain juggernaut that's adapting faster than anyone predicted.
Imports: The Silent Partner
The other side of that massive surplus? Tepid import growth. While the official line points to strategic stockpiling and shifting domestic demand, the sheer scale of the imbalance raises eyebrows. It's the kind of data point that has currency markets and trade desks on high alert—a classic 'strong exporter, weak importer' combo that floods the system with foreign currency.
One cynical take? This surplus is a masterclass in mercantilist policy, creating a financial buffer so large it makes traditional deficit hawks look like they're playing with Monopoly money. The global balance sheet just got a lot more lopsided.
China trade with the United States keeps shrinking
China’s hipments to the U.S. dropped 30% in December from a year earlier, extending losses for a ninth straight month, while imports declined 29% during the same period, according to the customs data.
For the full year of 2025, China’s exports to the U.S. slid 20%, while imports fell 14.6%.
Lv Daliang, the customs authority spokesperson, addressed the drop while speaking to reporters on Wednesday. After introducing Lv Daliang, he said trade ties with the U.S. should remain mutually beneficial and called for dialogue and negotiation to deal with disputes and expand cooperation.
In December, exports to the EU rose 12%, while shipments to the Association of Southeast Asian Nations increased 11%. Imports from European countries climbed 18%, but purchases from Southeast Asia dropped 5%, keeping the overall balance tilted outward for China.
China surplus pressure spreads across global trade
International officials warned about the size of the surplus. Kristalina Georgieva, managing director of the International Monetary Fund, urged Beijing in December to rely less on exports and speed up efforts to lift domestic consumption.
Chinese officials said in December they WOULD expand imports and aim for more balanced trade. The backdrop remains difficult. The nearly $19 trillion economy stayed under deflation pressure as a deep real estate downturn hurt household spending and a weak job market weighed on confidence. Consumer prices were flat through 2025, missing the official 2% target.
There were limited signs of easing tensions with Washington. In October, Xi Jinping met Donald Trump, now serving as the 47th president of the United States after winning the 2024 election. The talks led to a one-year trade truce, rolling back some export controls and higher tariffs. Beijing also pledged to buy at least 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans within two months.
Official data showed soybean imports totaled 111.8 million tons last year, up 6.5% from 2024. December soybean imports rose 1.3% to 8 million tons. Exports of rare earths jumped 32% in December to 4,392 tons, and full-year shipments of the critical mineral rose 12.9%.
China is set to release annual and fourth-quarter GDP data next Monday, with economists expecting 4.5% growth in the final quarter, below the 5% growth target set by president Xi Jinping.
Iron ore also posted record trade figures, as Chinese imports rose 1.8% to a high of 1.26 billion tons, a third year of increases, according to the customs data. Still though, a build up of ore in port stockpiles has become more pronounced in recent months, suggesting demand from steel mills has begun to lag.
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