November Inflation Shock: US Data Plunges to 2.7%, Smashing 3.1% Forecast
The numbers just dropped—and they're not what Wall Street ordered.
The Big Miss
Forget the gentle cooldown everyone penciled in. The delayed November inflation print didn't just slow down; it nosedived. Coming in at a stark 2.7%, the figure bypassed economist expectations of 3.1% by a country mile. That's not a trend—it's a statement.
Market Mechanics in Motion
This kind of divergence doesn't just tweak models; it rewires trader psychology overnight. A lower-than-expected Consumer Price Index (CPI) cuts the legs out from under hawkish monetary policy narratives. Suddenly, the 'higher for longer' interest rate mantra starts to sound a lot less certain. It's the classic setup: macro surprise triggers liquidity recalibration.
The Ripple You Can't Ignore
When traditional inflation fears evaporate, capital goes hunting. It seeks assets unshackled from central bank balance sheets and old-world economic cycles. It flows toward innovation, scarcity, and digitally-native value stores—precisely the domains where crypto thrives. A softening CPI backdrop doesn't just help risk assets; it actively undermines the dollar's 'safe haven' premium, making alternative systems more compelling by the day.
So while traditional finance scrambles to adjust its spreadsheets for one month's data—a favorite pastime—the underlying shift is clearer. The old gauges are becoming less reliable, and the smart money is already looking past them. The real inflation story might just be the one playing out on the blockchain.
Showing how the shutdown changed the release
This was the first CPI update that covered the period when the U.S. government was shut down. The stoppage made normal data collection harder, and that chaos forced the October CPI release to be canceled.
That update was supposed to come out on December 10, but the agency said it could not collect the numbers after the fact. The BLS explained that it used “nonsurvey data sources” to fill some gaps, which is not typical for a monthly CPI release.
Because the October information never came together, this month’s report did not include all the usual data points. Economists warned that the missing comparison month may make them slow to call this the start of a long drop in inflation.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week the CPI data “may be distorted” because of the record-long government shutdown that ended on November 12.
The Fed cut its benchmark rate by 25 basis points earlier this month, the third straight reduction. Even with the softer CPI, the odds of a January rate cut stayed low. The market, however, increased the chances of a March cut. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool moved the probability to 60%, up from 53.9% the day before.
Join Bybit now and claim a $50 bonus in minutes
