Bitwise Predicts: ETFs to Gobble Up Over 100% of New BTC, ETH, SOL Supply by 2026

Wall Street's new crypto appetite is about to trigger a supply shock. A major asset manager's forecast suggests exchange-traded funds will soon consume more new coins than the market can mint.

The Coming Crunch

Forget gradual adoption. The analysis points to a seismic shift where institutional demand, funneled through ETFs, completely overwhelms the fresh supply of leading digital assets. We're not talking about a slice of the pie—this is about buying the entire bakery and then some.

Numbers Don't Lie

The projection hinges on a simple, powerful math: ETF inflows are projected to exceed 100% of the new coins entering circulation for Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Solana. That means every newly created token, plus a chunk of existing supply, gets vacuumed into fund vaults. It creates a structural deficit the open market has never seen.

Market Mechanics Rewired

This isn't just bullish sentiment; it's a fundamental rewiring of market mechanics. When ETFs become the dominant marginal buyer, price discovery shifts. Volatility sourced from retail FOMO gets swapped for the steady, relentless pressure of automated allocations and rebalancing sheets. The old rules of crypto cycles start to look obsolete.

A Provocative Close

If the forecast holds, the era of 'digital gold' gives way to 'digitally scarce institutional inventory.' The ultimate irony? The decentralized asset class gets its next major price leg from the most centralized force in finance: the asset management complex. Talk about a plot twist Wall Street's quants never saw coming—until they started running the numbers themselves.

What’s Bitwise predicting for crypto in 2026?

In a recent publication where it made predictions about the crypto market, Bitwise said the supply of BTC, ETH, and SOL will be outpaced by institutional demand for crypto ETFs.

This can cause a supply squeeze for the three most popular crypto assets, which should result in positive price action. However, Bitwise cautioned that this is just a prediction, not a guarantee.

Crypto ETFs are seeing massive adoption, with traditional financial institutions like Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch giving their wealth management customers an opportunity to add crypto to their portfolios.

Since the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in 2024, ETFs have purchased 710,777 Bitcoins, almost double the 363,047 Bitcoins that have been mined in the same time frame, signalling a higher demand than supply.

Bitwise also predicted that over 100 crypto ETFs will launch in the US in 2026, giving investors more options to invest.

Bitcoin to break four-year cycle

Bitwise also made a prediction that bitcoin is going to break its four-year cycle in 2026 as more institutional capital flows into the crypto market. Historically, BTC’s price has been tied to several factors, including halving events and retail speculation. However, Bitwise expects institutional funds, such as spot Bitcoin ETFs to become a dominant force shaping the market.

The investment manager credits regulatory approvals for the growth and adoption of crypto ETFs.

In 2025, the SEC made it a point of emphasis to streamline the listing process for spot crypto ETFs, significantly cutting down on approval timelines and creating a clearer, repeatable framework for issuers.

Since then, Bitcoin and crypto ETFs have gone from niche products into mainstream portfolio-building products.

Bitwise believes Bitcoin’s price behavior could begin to resemble that of a mature macro asset rather than a purely cyclical trade, bringing an end to the four-year cycle.

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