Gemini Launches Gemini Predictions Nationwide After CFTC Green Light - Betting Markets Go Mainstream
Gemini just flipped the switch. The crypto exchange's prediction market platform, Gemini Predictions, is now live for all U.S. users after clearing its final regulatory hurdle with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This isn't just another product launch—it's a direct challenge to the traditional, opaque world of futures and options.
From Politics to Pop Culture
Forget dusty commodities pits. The platform lets users stake crypto on real-world outcomes. Think election results, box office numbers, or even next month's inflation data. It's decentralized finance meets your office March Madness pool, with real money on the line. The CFTC's nod signals a seismic shift: regulators are starting to draw a map for this wild frontier.
The Mechanics of a Market
Here's how it works. Gemini creates binary event contracts. You buy 'Yes' shares if you believe an outcome will happen, 'No' shares if you don't. Prices fluctuate based on market sentiment, creating a live odds feed powered by collective intelligence—or collective panic. Settlements are in Gemini's own stablecoin, GUSD, cutting out traditional banking rails entirely.
A New Arena for Traders
This opens a fresh playground for crypto natives. It's a pure alpha hunt, a way to hedge real-world risk with digital assets, or simply a more engaging way to lose money than watching a chart dip. It brings the speculative energy of crypto to... everything else. Finally, a use case for your crypto that doesn't involve cartoon apes.
The Fine Print and the Future
Don't mistake approval for a free pass. The CFTC's blessing comes with strings—rigorous KYC, anti-manipulation surveillance, and clear asset segregation. Gemini's playing by the old world's rules to build the new one. Their bet? That regulated transparency will attract capital that's been sitting on the sidelines, wary of the 'Wild West' label. It's a long-term play for legitimacy, one carefully crafted contract at a time.
This move does more than launch a feature. It blurs the line between investing and gambling, between Wall Street and Silicon Valley. It asks a provocative question: in a digital age, why should predicting the future be the sole domain of hedge funds and political pundits? Now anyone with a crypto wallet can vote with their money. Just remember, in markets this efficient, the house always wins—even when there technically isn't one.
Gemini enters a prediction market sector expanding under Trump
Prediction markets have been growing like crazy since President Donald TRUMP returned to the White House. The two biggest players, Kalshi and Polymarket, saw monster trading rallies during last year’s election cycle, with Bloomberg’s data showing their best months hitting back-to-back in October and November.
Both platforms are pacing for similar volumes this month, riding the momentum that hasn’t eased since Trump took office again.
For years, the CFTC kept a tight lid on prediction markets, blocking Polymarket and approving Kalshi’s listings only with extreme caution.
Kalshi later won a legal fight over political betting markets, which opened space for new categories like sports predictions. Under Trump’s second term, the tone at the CFTC shifted fast.
Acting Chair Caroline Pham has taken a more open stance on event contracts, and Trump’s own media company is even gearing up to launch a Truth Social prediction market with Crypto.com.
Gemini President Cameron Winklevoss said, “Prediction markets have the potential to be as big or bigger than traditional capital markets. Acting Chairman Pham understands this vision and its importance.
Unlike her predecessor, Acting Chairman Pham has positioned the CFTC as a pro-business, pro-innovation regulator that will allow America to lead in these new and exciting markets.”
Gemini joins a market reshaped by user demand, fees, and new competition
Prediction markets like Polymarket, Kalshi, and PredictIt let traders bet yes or no on outcomes such as who will control Congress, whether a movie like Bugonia will get an Oscar nomination, whether the Denver Nuggets will win the NBA Finals, or whether Chicago will see more than 12 inches of snow this month.
These contracts operate like peer-to-peer markets. There’s no “house” deciding odds. Traders buy yes or no shares priced between $0 and $1. Supply and demand set the price.
If “yes” is going for 40 cents, that signals the market sees the probability around 40%. If the event happens, the winning side gets $1 per contract. If it fails, the losing side gets nothing.
This setup mirrors derivatives markets, where value is tied to an underlying outcome, letting these companies avoid the state-level gambling rules that hammer traditional sportsbooks.
Kalshi’s recent expansion came from a large distribution deal with Robinhood, which pushed its event markets to 27 million users. Bloomberg Intelligence reported that 54% of Kalshi’s latest volume flowed through Robinhood.
But Robinhood now plans to launch its own rival venue to keep the 50% fee share it currently pays out. It also gave Susquehanna International Group, one of Kalshi’s biggest market makers, an equity stake to supply day-one liquidity.
Prediction markets aren’t new. They date back more than a century, including election bets outside the New York Stock Exchange in the early 1900s. By 1988, academics launched the Iowa Electronic Markets to see if trading behavior could help track public sentiment.
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