Copper Stages 2% Comeback After Friday’s Brutal Plunge

Metals markets just witnessed a textbook dead-cat bounce.

The Rebound Play

Copper prices clawed back roughly 2% in today's session. This minor recovery follows a sharp, sentiment-driven drop that rattled traders at the end of last week. The move highlights the commodity's persistent volatility as it dances to the tune of macroeconomic whispers and industrial demand forecasts.

Reading the Tape

Forget fundamentals for a second—this is about momentum and market psychology. A 2% gain after a steep fall isn't a trend reversal; it's often just the market catching its breath. It's the financial equivalent of a fighter leaning on the ropes before the next round begins. Traders are now watching to see if this bounce has legs or if it's merely a setup for the next leg down.

The Bigger Picture

In the grand scheme, these short-term gyrations are noise. The real signal for copper lies in global infrastructure spending, the energy transition, and whether the world's factories are humming or stalling. Every dip gets bought by believers in the long-term electrification story, while every rally gets sold by those worried about a recession. It's a perpetual tug-of-war.

So, a 2% rebound? Call it a relief rally, a technical correction, or just the market's fickle nature. In the end, it's a reminder that in traditional commodities, as in crypto, prices move first—the narrative to justify them is always written later by analysts who need to sound smart.

Analysts warn of supply gaps and rising demand

Copper has climbed more than 30% this year. Mine problems cut supply, and traders have been moving huge shipments into the United States ahead of possible tariffs under President Donald Trump’s 2025 trade posture.

Investment in green energy and power grids has built expectations for stronger long-term demand. Citi analysts said the metal may face major shortages because of tight mine supply and continued “hoarding” inside the United States.

Citi said, “We expect the U.S. to hoard global copper inventory and, in a bull case, draw further on depleted ex-U.S. stock,” adding that prices may hit $13,000 per ton in early 2026 and even $15,000 by the second quarter next year.

Avatar Commodities CEO Andrew Glass said the setup points to “stratospheric new highs,” driven by U.S. stockpiling that is reducing supply outside the country.

Glass said the rally reflects a “highly irregular distortion” fueled mainly by tariff concerns, not regular supply-and-demand flows, and added that Chinese demand has stayed weak. ING strategist Ewa Manthey said prices could reach $12,000 per ton next year and warned that higher prices will hit margins in energy-heavy industries.

Spot prices hit $11,816 per ton on Friday, while 3-month LME futures closed at $11,515, lifting global benchmarks by about 36% this year and 9% over the past month.

Tariffs drive U.S. inflows and drain global stocks

Copper‘s rally has been mostly triggered by global concerns that TRUMP will add duties on refined Copper imports from 2027, so now buyers are rushing shipments into the U.S. Data from StoneX showed U.S. inflows jumping by roughly 650,000 tons this year, lifting inventories to about 750,000 tons.

On the LME, copper last traded around $11,515 per ton for 3-month delivery, while COMEX March futures were around $11,814, creating strong arbitrage incentives. That pull has drained stock from the LME, which acts as a market of last resort.

Inventory data showed copper stocks at roughly 165,000 tons, with about 66,650 tons, around 40%, locked in canceled warrants, meaning that metal is set aside for delivery and not available to the open market. LME stocks are down nearly 40% from the start of the year.

Meanwhile, Deutsche Bank called 2025 “a heavily disrupted year,” thanks to major miners cutting output targets. Updated guidance from large producers reduced expected 2026 supply by about 300,000 tons. The bank said the market will sit in deficit, with the tightest period expected in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026.

Glencore lowered its 2026 production outlook to 810,000–870,000 tons because of reduced sourcing from the Collahuasi mine, which it owns with Anglo American. Rio Tinto told Reuters that next year’s output may fall to 800,000–870,000 tons, below this year’s 860,000-875,000 tons target.

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