Broadcom’s Record Year Overshadowed by Earnings Report Pressure
Broadcom just posted its best year ever—so why is everyone sweating the earnings call?
The Numbers Don't Lie (But Analysts Do)
On paper, it's a blowout. Record revenue, soaring margins, the whole corporate victory lap. Yet the market's acting like it just found a hair in its soup. The looming earnings report has turned from a victory parade into a high-wire act, with investors demanding not just growth, but flawless, future-proof, AI-powered growth.
The Guidance Gauntlet
That's the real pressure point. Past performance is for trophies; future guidance is for stock prices. The street wants a crystal-clear roadmap showing how Broadcom plans to dominate the next cycle—especially in AI infrastructure and cloud. Anything less than stellar forecasts will be punished. It's the finance world's special talent: turning record profits into anxiety.
So, a record year sets the stage, but one nervous whisper on an earnings call can wipe out the celebration. Typical.
Analysts project strong quarter driven by AI demand
Wall Street’s looking for $1.87 in adjusted earnings per share for the fiscal fourth quarter that wrapped up October 31. Last year same time, it was $1.42. Revenue projections point to roughly $17.5 billion compared with $14.1 billion a year back. The AI business alone should pull in about $6.2 billion, up around 68%.
Shaon Baqui tracks tech stocks at Janus Henderson Investors. Multiple portfolios there hold Broadcom. “Expectations here are obviously elevated given the recent performance, but for good reason,” he said. “They’re significantly levered to the Google ecosystem, and we all see the recent success around Gemini 3 and what Google’s been able to do.”
Beyond just the financials, investors really care about what Chief Executive Officer Hock Tan says during the earnings call.
“The investor community here has taken sort of an ‘in Hock we trust’ approach,” Baqui explained. “He manages to pull a rabbit out of the hat every quarter and surprise with something new.”
$10 billion OpenAI deal sparked last rally
How did Broadcom do last quarter? Tan dropped a bombshell. A new customer with orders worth more than $10 billion. The stock shot up 9.4% the next day, closing at a record. Another announcement like that WOULD help ease concerns. Some analysts and investors worry about how spending’s gotten concentrated among just a handful of huge tech companies.
Ben Reitzes at Melius wrote in a December 8 note: “Strength in TPU orders should power Broadcom’s estimates higher through next year. Long-term, we would still prefer success with a diverse set of customers for Broadcom across its seven ‘hyperscale’ opportunities.”
AI grabs headlines, but Broadcom’s other operations matter. Investors want updates on software. They want to know about enterprise storage, broadband, wireless communication.
But there’s something else. The stock’s gotten so pricey that even blowout earnings might not send it higher. It could actually go the other way.
Ryuta Makino analyzes for Gabelli Funds. His take’s pretty straightforward: “Everybody’s long and maybe some people are gonna sell off just for profit taking.“
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