BIS Sounds Alarm: Gold and Tech Stocks Rise Together for First Time in Over 50 Years

Gold and tech stocks are moving in lockstep—and the Bank for International Settlements is flashing warning lights. This rare correlation, unseen in over half a century, is sending shockwaves through traditional finance.

The Unlikely Duo

For decades, gold acted as the safe-haven hedge, while tech stocks chased growth. Their paths rarely crossed. Now, they're rising together—a statistical anomaly that's got central bankers nervous. The BIS sees it as a symptom of deeper market stress, where traditional diversification playbooks are breaking down.

What's Really Driving This?

Look beyond the surface. This isn't about a sudden love affair between bullion and Big Tech. It's a flight to perceived 'any port in a storm' assets. Investors are piling into both, not because the fundamentals align, but because confidence in everything else is eroding. It's a bet against the conventional system, plain and simple.

A System Under Strain

The synchronized rise cuts through the usual market narratives. It bypasses tired talk of sector rotations and instead points to a collective search for stores of value—whether digital or ancient. When both the oldest and newest asset classes rally, it suggests the middle—the vast landscape of traditional equities and bonds—is looking shaky.

The takeaway? The market's safety dance is changing. When gold and tech become fellow travelers, it's a stark signal that the old rules no longer apply. Perhaps the only thing more volatile than the markets right now is the credibility of the analysts trying to explain them.

BIS highlights role of retail buyers and ETF pricing pressure

The rally isn’t just coming from central banks or institutions. Regular investors are piling in too. This year, prices of gold ETFs have been trading above their net asset value, showing what Shin described as “strong buying pressure coupled with impediments to arbitrage.” That means buyers are paying more than what the funds actually hold, a red flag for market froth.

Central banks have made aggressive purchases over the past few quarters, and Shin said those moves “clearly set a very firm tone in the price of gold.” But once prices started rising, others followed. “Whenever you have prices actually doing quite well, you will see other investors jumping in,” he said.

The bigger picture, according to the BIS, is that the whole environment is becoming more fragile. That’s not just about gold and stocks. Bitcoin has dropped by about 20% this past month, and the BIS warned the market’s appetite for risk might be hitting a ceiling.

The European Central Bank and Bank of England have also raised concerns about inflated AI stock valuations in recent weeks, specifically saying that all of this rests on overly optimistic assumptions.

BIS questions AI profits and watches dollar drop

Shin drew comparisons between now and the dotcom bubble in the early 2000s. The difference, he said, is that today’s AI firms are actually making money. But that doesn’t mean their massive spending on infrastructure is a good bet.

Many of these companies are spending billions on data centers, and Shin said the key question is whether all that will pay off. “The fundamental question is whether those expenditures will be seen as being justified in the long run,” he said.

He also pointed out that the strength of global markets going into 2026 will depend heavily on how the economy holds up. For now, things are holding steady. “So far, activity has been surprisingly resilient,” he said.

But the BIS is also watching currency markets closely, especially the US dollar. After Donald TRUMP announced sweeping new trade tariffs back in April, the dollar took a hit.

Now, it’s headed for its biggest yearly decline since the 2007 collapse of Lehman Brothers. Shin said “the dollar has been relatively stable” since then, but added that something else is coming into play.

“I think the hedging behaviour of non-U.S. investors is going to be a very, very important input into how markets will co-move from here,” Shin said.

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