JPMorgan Analysts: Stronger Balance Sheets Outweigh Miner Pressure, Bolstering Bitcoin’s Stability
Wall Street's crypto whisperers just flipped the script on Bitcoin's stability debate.
Forget the doom-loop narratives about miner capitulation dragging prices down. JPMorgan's latest analysis points to a different force at work—one that's been quietly building beneath the surface.
The Real Shock Absorber
It's not about hash rate or energy costs. The key support, according to the analysts, comes from a fundamental shift in who holds Bitcoin and why. Large-scale holders—often dubbed 'strategic' or long-term investors—have been methodically strengthening their positions.
Their fortified balance sheets now act as a massive counterweight. When miner selling pressure hits the market, these deep-pocketed entities don't flinch. They provide the buy-side liquidity that keeps volatility in check, creating a floor that's far more resilient than traditional models predicted.
Beyond the Mining FUD
The report effectively sidelines the perennial miner fear-mongering. Yes, operational costs squeeze miners, forcing some to sell. But that's become a predictable, almost mechanical pressure—a known variable the market can digest.
The unpredictable element, the one that truly moves markets, is institutional conviction. And right now, that conviction is being backed by stronger financial foundations than ever before. It's a classic case of weak hands versus strong vaults.
So, while headlines fret over mining rigs going offline, the real stability is being engineered in corporate treasuries and investment fund portfolios—a delightful irony for an asset born to defy those very institutions. Sometimes, the most bullish signal for a decentralized future is when the old guard starts building fortresses to protect it.
JPM sees miner equities breaking Bitcoin correlation
Bitcoin could theoretically reach $170,000 if investors begin valuing it like gold, according to JPMorgan strategist Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
After rebounding 12% from November lows, bitcoin briefly turned positive for the year at $93,500, though traders remain alert as… pic.twitter.com/oGCnU1HQ6R
— U.S. Global Investors (@USFunds) December 4, 2025
JPM experts revealed that Strategy’s enterprise value-to-bitcoin holdings ratio, which is determined by dividing the market value of its debt, preferreds, and equity by the market value of its bitcoin, is currently at 1.13. The experts further stated that the BTC’s market value of 1.13 follows a significant decrease in the second half of this year.
Notably, the analysts argued that if the ratio remains above 1.0, MSTR will eventually avoid selling bitcoins, and investors will likely feel more comfortable.
The JPM experts stated that “the Bitcoin price continues to hover below its production cost,” which is causing sell pressure on the first and biggest cryptocurrency, even though a decrease in hashrate typically increases miner earnings.
JPM analysts stated that the production cost of Bitcoin is now estimated to be $90,000, down from $94,000 in the previous month. The revised estimate is based on the assumption that power will cost $0.05 per kWh. The analysts predict that for higher-cost businesses, a $0.01 increase per kWh will result in a $18,000 increase in production costs.
According to the JPM report, some high-cost miners have been compelled to sell bitcoins in recent weeks as profits are squeezed due to rising electricity costs and a decline in the price of BTC. Nevertheless, JPM stated that miners are not the primary force behind bitcoin’s upcoming development. Instead, they cited Strategy’s balance sheet and its capacity to refrain from selling BTC.
In October, JPM analysts noted that publicly traded BTC mining companies have deviated from the price performance of Bitcoin in recent months. According to the JPM, the change indicates a “clear breakdown” in the relationship between the price of the cryptocurrency and equities that mine Bitcoin.
According to analysts, the shift to AI is providing miners with more consistent and higher-margin revenue streams, as opposed to the more erratic and increasingly less lucrative bitcoin mining industry. The experts said that equity markets have begun to decouple from changes in the price of bitcoin by re-rating these companies based on their AI potential rather than their exposure to bitcoin.
Strategy builds a major USD reserve for stability
On December 3, MSTR announced it has established a $1.44 billion U.S dollar reserve to cover interest on its outstanding debt and dividend payments on its preferred stock. According to on-chain analytics company CryptoQuant, the action indicates that the Strategy is being ready for future declining market situations.
The goal of Strategy’s USD reserve, which was financed by its most recent MSTR at-the-market share issuance program, is to pay dividends for at least a year. The corporation stated that it intends to gradually increase the reserve to cover at least 24 months’ worth of expenses.
According to CryptoQuant, this dual-reserve strategy reduces the likelihood of forced bitcoin sales during downturns by maintaining both USD and bitcoin reserves. However, CryptoQuant stated that the USD reserve also represents a “tactical shift” away from Strategy’s plan from 2020 to November 2025, which was to purchase more bitcoin by issuing convertible debt and shares.
On December 1, Michael Saylor, co-founder and executive chairman of MicroStrategy, stated that the Company currently owns 650,000 BTC, or over $56 billion. He added that the company purchased the BTCs at an average price of $87,000 per BTC, for a total cost of approximately $56.4 billion, including fees and expenditures.
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