US Import Collapse Hammers Gold & Tech - GDP Calculations Shift Again in Latest Economic Shakeup

American imports hit a wall—and the fallout's rewriting economic rules overnight.

The Great Import Implosion

Gold's traditional safe-haven status gets questioned as industrial demand evaporates. Tech supply chains face unprecedented pressure—semiconductor imports down double-digits. The very metrics we use to measure economic health are being recalculated in real-time.

GDP's Moving Target

Third-quarter projections get their second major revision in months. Trade deficit numbers no longer align with previous models. Economists scramble to adjust forecasts while Treasury yields swing wildly.

Market dominoes fall faster than regulators can track them—proving once again that economic models work perfectly until real money gets involved.

US import collapse hits gold, tech; GDP math changes again

Back in April, TRUMP announced a new set of reciprocal tariffs, but he paused them while the US tried to negotiate deals with key trading partners. By August, several of those deals were finalized, causing the trade data to swing wildly.

That kind of volatility also messes with GDP calculations. Before the latest update, the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow model projected that net exports were adding 0.57 percentage point to Q3 GDP. That could change again now that August numbers are out.

Meanwhile, the Census Bureau said it will publish September retail sales on November 25, and durable goods orders on November 26.

The most aggressive pullback in imports came from nonmonetary gold, after the US slapped a 39% tariff on Switzerland, a top Gold supplier. The result? Imports plunged, and the deficit with Switzerland got smaller. Imports of capital goods, including computer accessories and communications equipment, also fell.

On an inflation-adjusted basis, the merchandise trade deficit narrowed to $83.7 billion, the lowest since the end of 2023. That’s a big move, but the damage wasn’t evenly spread.

The deficit with China hit its highest since April, while the gaps with Mexico and Canada shrank slightly. It’s a snapshot of how trade tensions continue to reshape US trade flows and impact supply chains.

Switzerland cuts deal as tariff fight cools off

Jamieson Greer, the US Trade Representative, confirmed in a CNBC interview that Washington and Bern had “essentially reached a deal” to bring the Swiss tariff down from 39% to 15%.

“We’ve essentially reached a deal with Switzerland. So we’ll post details of that today on the White House website,” Greer said. The administration plans to release the full terms this Friday.

Greer said the agreement will bring more Swiss manufacturing to the US, including pharmaceuticals, gold smelting, and railway equipment. “So we’re really excited about that deal and what it means for American manufacturing,” he added.

The deal is the end of a months-long negotiation that began when Trump shocked Swiss officials by imposing the massive 39% tariff, more than double the one applied to EU nations.

Trump defended the MOVE by pointing to what officials described as a $40 billion goods trade deficit with Switzerland. But Swiss negotiators said they thought they already had an agreement with the US before Trump’s move hit.

Bloomberg had earlier reported that both countries were circling the 15% rate. Trump later confirmed that “officials had been working on a deal.” Swiss industries like watches, machinery, and precision instruments took the brunt of the blow.

Greer said this new deal clears the way for those sectors to bounce back and ship more to the US, without the punishing duties.

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