China’s Soybean Imports Stumble Despite Trade Deal Promises – What’s Really Going On?

Trade pledges aren't translating to purchases—China's soybean imports miss targets yet again. Is this strategic hesitation or just another empty promise in the global commodities game?

Behind the numbers: When 'commitments' collide with reality. Market watchers aren't buying the official explanations—literally.

Bonus jab: Meanwhile, commodity traders still pretending they can predict Beijing's next move like it's a regulated market. Cute.

Purchase numbers far below White House expectations

Data from the U.S. Department of Agriculture released last Friday revealed that China made only two purchases of American soybeans following the Trump-Xi Jinping meeting in South Korea. These transactions totaled just 332,000 metric tons between Oct. 2 and Nov. 12,  a fraction of the 12 million metric tons the WHITE House announced China had committed to buy before the year ends.

Michael Sobolik from the Hudson Institute said Beijing’s track record suggests skepticism is warranted. “Beijing’s promises to American presidents have historically had a short expiration date, and Xi’s promises to Trump about soybean purchases will likely be the same,” the senior fellow explained.

Sobolik believes China will probably “slow-roll soybean purchases to bait the Trump administration into prolonged negotiations” while preventing competitive moves from Washington.

Soybeans have repeatedly become a source of conflict in trade disputes between America and China. Earlier this year, Beijing hurt U.S. farmers by refusing to buy American soybeans when the new harvest season began.

Last month, the White House announced that China had also agreed to a broader deal requiring purchases of 25 million tons each year for the next three years. However, this amount WOULD still be less than the 26.8 million tons China purchased last year.

Beijing has stayed notably silent about confirming these purchase targets. While China did pause some retaliatory tariffs on American farm products, officials there have not publicly backed the buying commitments. Experts monitoring Chinese import activity say demand appears weak in the NEAR term.

Industry experts see little evidence of major buying program

Industry insiders report seeing few signs that China plans major buying campaigns. State-controlled grain importers like COFCO and Sinograin would normally handle most of these large purchases.

Arlan Suderman, who works as chief commodities economist at StoneX, wrote in a Nov. 11 analysis that evidence is lacking. “There’s very little indication that these state buyers are engaged in a program to purchase 12 mmt ahead of the end of this year, let alone 25 mmt more for calendar year 2026,” he noted. “Thus far we see little evidence of it as the clock continues to tick.”

China has sent mixed messages about its intentions. Earlier this month, Beijing restored import permits for three American soybean exporters, including Minnesota-based CHS Inc.

At China’s biggest agricultural imports exhibition last week, Commerce Ministry director Chen Chao called farm trade crucial for the broader economic relationship between both countries. “With vast potential ahead, deeper agricultural cooperation will contribute positively to global food security and shared prosperity,” he told state media.

Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang also met with American agricultural groups recently, promising to build better conditions for farm trade cooperation.

The reduced buying has created financial pressure for U.S. farmers, who typically count China as their largest export destination. China purchased $12.6 billion worth of soybeans in 2024. Trump has criticized the purchase delays as an “economically hostile” move.

China’s strategy of using soybean purchases as negotiating leverage isn’t new. American farmers represent an important voting group for Trump and Republicans, making them attractive targets for economic pressure.

During Trump’s first presidency, Beijing cut soybean imports to protest American tariffs and export restrictions. This pressure led to negotiations for a deal requiring China to buy $200 billion in U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans.

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