IEA Shock Report: Global Oil Demand Could Surge Until 2050 Despite Green Push

Fossil fuels refuse to die. The International Energy Agency (IEA) just dropped a bombshell—oil demand might keep climbing for another quarter-century.

Black gold's last stand?

While politicians parade net-zero pledges, the IEA's latest projections reveal an inconvenient truth: the world still runs on crude. Electric vehicles and renewables aren't killing oil fast enough—turns out planes, plastics, and emerging economies need the stuff.

Wall Street's reaction? Drill baby drill—oil stocks jumped 3% on the news. Because nothing fuels portfolio growth like a good old-fashioned climate paradox. (Bonus jab: At least someone's still hitting their 2050 growth targets.)

IEA abandons peak oil forecasts, projects growth through 2050

The agency also changed course from its earlier predictions. It said worldwide oil and gas consumption could keep rising until 2050. That’s a departure from previous expectations of a speedy transition to cleaner fuels. It also predicts the world will likely fail to achieve climate goals.

The organization serves as the West’s energy security watchdog. It’s been under pressure from the U.S. in recent years for a shift toward focusing on clean energy policies. President Donald TRUMP has called on American companies to further expand oil and gas production.

Under the Joe Biden administration, the IEA predicted that global oil demand would peak this decade. It said no more investment in oil and gas was needed if the world wanted to achieve its climate target.

Trump’s Energy Secretary Chris Wright has called the IEA’s demand peak projections “nonsensical.” The IEA is funded by member countries. The U.S. is the largest contributor. Its analysis and data underpin energy policies of governments and companies around the world.

Current policies framework shows oil demand climbing 13% by mid-century

In its annual World Energy Outlook published Wednesday, the IEA predicted under a current policies scenario that oil demand will hit 113 million barrels per day by mid-century. That’s up around 13% from 2024 consumption.

It predicted that global energy demand will climb by 90 exajoules by 2035. That’s a 15% increase from present levels.

The current policies scenario takes into account existing government policies. Not aspirations to achieve climate goals.

The IEA last used the current policies scenario for its predictions in 2019. It switched to predictions more in line with a clean energy transition and pledges of reaching net zero emissions by mid-century from 2020. This year’s outlook ditched the pledges scenario.

The IEA said it had planned to assess new country climate targets covering 2031-2035. But not enough countries submitted these plans to produce a meaningful picture. In the IEA’s stated policies scenario, which considers policies that have been put forward but not necessarily adopted, oil demand peaks around 2030.

The IEA says its scenarios explore a range of possible outcomes under various sets of assumptions. They are not forecasts.

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