Rivian and Lucid Face Q3 Earnings Pressure Amid Soaring Costs and Vanishing Federal EV Tax Credits
Electric vehicle makers brace for earnings storm as financial headwinds intensify.
The Cost Squeeze
Rivian and Lucid confront mounting production expenses just as government incentives evaporate. Manufacturing challenges meet fiscal reality in this quarter's financial disclosure.
Subsidy Sunset
Federal EV tax credit eliminations hit at the worst possible moment—right when raw material costs are skyrocketing and supply chain issues persist. The timing couldn't be more brutal for these emerging automakers.
Wall Street's Verdict
Analysts watch closely as both companies navigate what some call 'the EV valley of death'—that awkward phase between burning cash and actually turning a profit. Because nothing says sustainable business model like depending on government handouts to survive.
The road ahead looks bumpy for electric vehicle startups facing their first true test of market viability without training wheels.
Credit cuts, tariffs, and changing policy reshape revenue outlooks
The TRUMP administration this fall removed the federal EV purchase incentive of up to $7,500 and also ended penalties for automakers who fall short on fuel-efficiency targets.
RJ Scaringe, Rivian’s CEO, said during the company’s last earnings call that the policy changes are “complex and rapidly evolving,” and will affect both performance and cash flow.
Rivian had expected $300 million in regulatory-credit revenue this year; that is now closer to $160 million. The company also lowered its gross profit forecast from a modest gain to roughly breakeven and carried out layoffs to cut expenses.
Tariffs are adding more pressure. Rivian said tariffs are costing the company “a couple thousand dollars per unit.” Lucid reported that tariffs hit its margins by $54 million in the second quarter.
Mark Delaney of Goldman Sachs said the loss of Inflation Reduction Act credits could create a “double-digit percent headwind” for industry sales. Tesla, also a seller of regulatory credits, reported credit revenue dropping 44% in the third quarter, from $739 million to $417 million.
The third quarter was the high-water mark for EV demand before credits expired. Barclays analyst Dan Levy warned that it’s unclear how long the slowdown that follows will last, saying Q3 likely marks “the highest” U.S. EV market penetration for some time.
Rivian delivered 13,201 vehicles in Q3, a 32% increase from last year. Lucid delivered 4,078 vehicles, a 47% rise. Yet both remain unprofitable.
Rivian is expected to report a quarterly loss of $0.72 per share on $1.5 billion in revenue, compared to a $0.99 loss on $874 million last year. Rivian also now projects a Core loss between $2 billion and $2.25 billion for 2025. Analysts have questioned its goal to reach EBITDA profitability by 2027.
Lucid is expected to report a $2.27 adjusted per-share loss on $379 million in revenue, nearly 90% growth from last year, but still with a gross loss of $255 million. Rivian’s expected gross loss is $39 million. Rivian shares are down less than 5% this year. Lucid shares are down roughly 45%, after a 1-for-10 reverse split.
New models and tech partnerships aim to prove future demand
Rivian is leaning hard on its upcoming R2 midsize vehicle, targeted at roughly $45,000 and scheduled to begin production in the first half of next year.
But many of Rivian’s competitors plan similar-priced midsize EVs with longer ranges, so you get why Wall Street is questioning how many units Rivian can realistically sell.
Rivian has a $5.8 billion software and electrical architecture partnership with Volkswagen, and the company has been promising that its next-generation system will support advanced driver-assistance features since at least Q1 2025.
Meanwhile, Lucid’s interim CEO Marc Winterhoff said their upcoming Gravity SUV and a new midsize platform, saying the company is “pushing the boundaries of what EVs can be.”
Lucid signed a $300 million deal with Uber in July to deploy 20,000 Gravity SUVs equipped with autonomous technology from Nuro over six years.
But Winterhoff admitted on Tuesday that:- “We are not where we want to be with Lucid Gravity production relative to our target at this point in the year. We believe we will significantly increase production in the second half of the year.”
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