GM Crushes Wall Street Forecasts, Lifts 2025 Outlook Despite EV Headwinds
Detroit's automotive giant just handed Wall Street analysts a reality check—beating expectations while navigating the electric vehicle slowdown.
Numbers Don't Lie
GM's performance metrics are shouting what the EV skeptics have been whispering—sometimes the old guard knows how to pivot better than the disruptors.
2025 Guidance Gets Turbocharged
The revised outlook suggests GM's playing chess while others play checkers, proving traditional automakers can still teach Silicon Valley a thing or two about sustainable growth.
Another quarter, another reminder that sometimes the most profitable innovation isn't building new roads—but knowing how to drive better on the existing ones. Wall Street's still trying to find its car keys while GM's already left the parking lot.
GM lifts 2025 guidance and slashes tariff hit
With Q3 in the bag, General Motors raised the bar for the rest of the year. The company now expects adjusted EBIT between $12 billion and $13 billion, compared to the previous $10 billion to $12.5 billion. Adjusted EPS for the year moves up to $9.75 to $10.50, from $8.25 to $10. Automotive free cash FLOW is also getting an upgrade — $10 billion to $11 billion, up from $7.5 billion to $10 billion.
That fourth-quarter outlook is looking spicy too. GM projects adjusted EPS between $1.64 and $2.39, with the midpoint at $2.02. That’s higher than analysts’ average target of $1.94. CEO Mary Barra told shareholders Tuesday, “Thanks to the collective efforts of our team, and our compelling vehicle portfolio, GM delivered another very good quarter of earnings and free cash flow. Based on our performance, we are raising our full-year guidance.”
General Motors also trimmed its projected tariff hit for 2025. It now expects $3.5 billion to $4.5 billion in tariff impact, down from $4 billion to $5 billion. Barra gave credit to President Donald TRUMP for “the important tariff updates” announced last Friday. The new policy adds tariffs on imported medium- and heavy-duty trucks and parts, while extending a 3.75% offset for American-made vehicles.
But it wasn’t all green arrows. The company took a $1.6 billion hit last week from scaling back its electric vehicle push. That charge wasn’t included in the adjusted numbers, but it still dragged net income for stockholders down to $1.3 billion, a 57% drop from last year’s $3.1 billion. Net income margin cratered to 2.7%, down from 6.3%.
EV profit drags, NA margin slips, China rebounds
On EVs, GM CFO Paul Jacobson told CNBC that only 40% of the company’s electric vehicles are profitable on a production level. That’s way lower than investors hoped. He warned that turning a profit on EVs will take longer, as adoption cools. “We do have some structural changes that we need to do to make sure that we lower the cost of producing those vehicles,” Jacobson said on “Squawk Box.”
Still, General Motors gained ground in the EV market. According to Motor Intelligence, the company’s EV share jumped from 8.7% at the start of the year to 13.8% by the end of Q3. That pushed it ahead of Hyundai and Kia, which sit at 8.6%, but it’s still trailing Tesla by a mile.
The North American business, which has been GM’s cash cow, made $2.5 billion in Q3, adjusted. That’s a drop from last year’s numbers, and the profit margin fell to 6.2%, down from 9.7%. Barra said Tuesday that her “top priority” is getting margins in North America back to 8% to 10%. That’ll take discipline in EV costs, production, pricing, and tariff exposure.
What helped cover that margin slip? China. GM’s Chinese unit added $217 million more in profit than last year. Its international segment chipped in another $184 million in gains. GM Financial, the company’s lending arm, also pulled its weight — $804 million in adjusted earnings, up 17% from last year.
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