Bitcoin’s Fate This Week: 5 Market-Moving Updates That Could Spark the Next Rally or Rout

Bitcoin traders brace for volatility as five critical developments converge this week.

Regulatory rumblings shake foundations

Washington's latest crypto stance could make or break institutional flows—because nothing says 'stable market' like politicians discovering blockchain.

Fed minutes reveal inflation fight

Interest rate signals from the central bank threaten to crush risk appetite across digital assets.

Mining difficulty hits record high

Network security strengthens while profitability pressures mount for smaller operations.

Institutional flows show divergence

While spot ETFs see modest inflows, derivatives traders position for potential downside protection.

Technical levels approach breaking point

Key support and resistance zones cluster within 5% of current price—setting up explosive moves in either direction.

Whether you're betting on digital gold or digital fool's gold, this week separates conviction from capitulation.

Is the bull market still on after record liquidation 

Bitcoin’s price jumped back to $114,000 on Monday, a 3.9% recovery from Friday’s lows of $109,700. According to data from CoinGecko, the king coin went up as high as $116,000 during the day after bouncing back from a downward spiral around the weekly close, with market conditions turning against overleveraged traders.

According to CryptoQuant contributor ArabChain, liquidity stress on Binance reached its highest levels since the start of 2025. The analyst cited exchange data showing daily trading volume topping 32,500 Bitcoin while the price stabilized around $113,000, and an unusually high liquidity stress ratio stood at 0.2867. 

The market was seemingly unable to absorb large orders without significant price swings, which ArabChain explained was triggered by mass stop-loss activations and liquidation of Leveraged positions en masse. 

Bitcoin had briefly touched $122,000–$123,000 early Friday, before heavy selling pressure pushed prices toward the $110,000–$112,000 levels.

Market analyst Rekt Capital said on X that bitcoin had rebounded from a “Higher Low” level, the same area that supported a previous reversal, and closed above $114,300. 

“On the previous five times this has happened, Bitcoin rallied to at least $117,300,” he said, hinting that the coin could continue its upward momentum.

US economic data delays due to shutdown, Powell’s speech incoming

Crypto traders and stock markets are preparing for a word from the US central bank during the three-week-long US federal government shutdown. 

A hiatus in the federal arm of the government has delayed the release of key economic reports, including wholesale inflation, retail sales, and housing data. Economists fear the deadlock will lead to policymaking paralysis ahead of the Federal Reserve’s next meeting.

Last Friday, President Donald TRUMP responded to China’s restrictions on rare earth exports by announcing 100% tariffs on imports from the Asian country, which started a sell-off in equities, debt, commodities, and risky assets.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell is scheduled to speak at the NABE annual meeting in Philadelphia on Tuesday, with markets eager for clues about the central bank’s next move. According to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, traders almost unanimously expect a 0.25% rate cut at the Fed’s October 29 meeting.

Binance: Sellers still dominant after market rebound

Even after Bitcoin traced its way back to prices above $114,000, Binance reserves data shows sellers are still in control of the market. CryptoQuant reported that the exchange recorded significant swings in Taker Volume activity over the past 48 hours, a time when traders were locked in a battle for short-term momentum.

Binance’s Taker Imbalance % indicator was negative on Friday, through the weekend, and into midday on Sunday due to persistent selling dominance. Analysts noted that slight positive readings yesterday could mean investors’ buying interest started to reappear. Still, trading volume on the buy side is relatively low compared to the heavy selling earlier in the week. 

At the time of this publication, Bitcoin is consolidating below $118,000, lacking the volume strength necessary for a sustained recovery. Per CryptoQuant analyst Frank A. Fetter, implied volatility had also surged to its highest levels since April, a time marred with tariff-induced “Liberation Day” policies that spread uncertainty in global markets. 

BTC implied volatility just spiked: the market is now pricing in larger potential moves ahead. Finally. $BTC pic.twitter.com/9XhA4uI3QO

“BTC implied volatility just spiked. The market is now pricing in larger potential moves ahead. Finally,” Fetter wrote on X.

US equities in recovery mode, earnings season start

US stock futures were up 1.3%, while the Nasdaq 100 gained 1.9% and the Dow Jones ROSE more than 400 points, per data from TradingEconomics. The S&P’s benchmark index, the US500, reached 6,627 points in Monday’s pre-market session, advancing 1.14% from the prior session.

Roughly 10% of S&P 500 companies are set to report third-quarter earnings this week, including JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, Goldman Sachs, BlackRock, and Citigroup, with additional results expected from Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, and U.S. Bancorp later in the week.

Tech and manufacturing giant TSMC, the world’s largest semiconductor producer, will report earnings Thursday following a 40% revenue surge in the first half of 2025. Equipment Maker ASML releases results on Wednesday on the backdrop of new trade barriers from the Trump administration. 

Institutions buy the dip, retail traders react

Institutional investors appear to be treating Bitcoin’s crash as a buying opportunity. Data from CryptoQuant shows the Coinbase Premium Index, which tracks the price difference between USD pairs on Coinbase and USDT pairs on Binance, reached 0.182 on October 10, its highest level in 19 months. 

Analysts believe the spike is evidence of strong institutional demand in the US market, particularly during the slump that took Bitcoin from $122,000 to below $110,000. ethereum also joined the rebound, climbing 7% over 24 hours to $4,100. 

Retail participation on October 11 saw wallets send $1.359 billion worth of crypto to Binance, the second-largest single-day deposit spike in the whole of 2025.

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