BLS Halts All Economic Data - Friday’s Jobs Report Included in Shutdown

Economic Blackout: Government Data Freeze Throws Markets Into Uncertainty

The Bureau of Labor Statistics slams the brakes on all economic releases - including the crucial Friday jobs report that traders live and die by. No unemployment numbers, no inflation data, no wage growth metrics. Just radio silence from the people who usually tell us how bad things are getting.

Market Chaos Ahead

Traders face flying blind without their favorite government-provided crystal ball. The timing couldn't be worse - right when everyone's trying to guess the Fed's next move. Now we're all just throwing darts in the dark, which honestly might be more accurate than some of those 'expert' forecasts anyway.

When Government Goes Quiet

No data means no confirmation bias for your favorite economic narrative. Bulls and bears alike lose their ammunition. The only thing certain? Some hedge fund manager will still claim they predicted whatever happens next.

Welcome to economic purgatory - where your portfolio swings on rumors instead of reports, and Wall Street analysts suddenly remember they're supposed to be doing actual research.

BLS stops nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims and CPI releases

The BLS said in its plan, “BLS will suspend all operations. Economic data that are scheduled to be released during the lapse will not be released.” This directly affects the nonfarm payrolls report due Friday, a monthly gauge of job creation at a time when employment growth has been slowing.

The weekly initial jobless claims data, usually released every Thursday, will also be frozen. On October 15, the agency is scheduled to issue the consumer price index, the last inflation reading before the Fed meets October 28‑29. That release would also be blocked if the shutdown continues.

“All active data collection activities for BLS surveys will cease,” the plan said, signaling delays for future reports even after the government reopens. “The BLS website will not be updated with new content or restored in the event of a technical failure during a lapse.” The agency typically issues about a dozen reports a month, covering import and export prices, wage growth, and other measures of consumer and worker conditions, but all of these would be paused under the shutdown scenario.

Shutdown risks credit rating and market stability

This potential freeze comes as markets debate whether a new shutdown will hit differently from past episodes. The Labor Department on Monday reiterated it is preparing for “a news and data blackout” if the government closes, showing that President Donald Trump’s administration is actively planning for disruptions.

In May, Moody’s cut the U.S. credit rating from Aaa to Aa1 and warned of further downgrades if political battles cause serious economic effects. “The rating also could be downgraded if policy effectiveness or the strength of institutions were to erode to such a degree that materially weakens the sovereign’s credit profile,” Moody’s wrote at the time.

The agency also flagged “a deterioration in medium‑term growth or economic resilience to shocks” or large moves away from the U.S. dollar as reasons for another downgrade.

JPMorgan’s trading desk told clients Monday morning there is a “tail risk” of another credit rating cut tied to a shutdown. Such a MOVE would likely push Treasury yields higher, raising borrowing costs for companies and reducing the value of future earnings.

Trump has summoned top Congressional leaders to the WHITE House before Wednesday’s deadline to try to avoid the lapse and has warned of mass firings of federal workers if a shutdown occurs.

Data from previous shutdowns shows markets have often brushed off the impact, but some participants now say the fractured political climate and fragile economy could make this one worse. Chris Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS, said a downgrade would be more like a “technicality” for the Treasury market, which has already handled past cuts and national debt concerns. Bond traders also expect Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to “step in” if problems grow.

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