Economists Slam Trump Fed Pick’s Projections for Ignoring AI Spending and Inflation Impact

Fed nominee's economic forecast faces brutal rejection from top economists.

AI Investment Blind Spot

Experts call out dangerous oversight in failing to account for trillions pouring into artificial intelligence infrastructure. The technological revolution reshaping global economies doesn't appear in the nominee's models.

Inflation Calculation Gaps

Traditional metrics missing AI's disruptive effect on productivity and pricing. Economists warn this creates dangerously optimistic projections that could hamstring monetary policy.

Wall Street's usual 'innovate now, worry later' approach gets another free pass while Main Street bears the forecasting errors. Some things never change in finance.

Steve says lower immigration and less borrowing require cheaper money

In his Monday speech, Steve said the U.S. doesn’t need as much investment anymore because immigration has dropped. “An economy with fewer workers doesn’t need to build as much,” he said. Less immigration, he argues, means less pressure on resources, which WOULD bring inflation down and support lower rates.

He also pointed to Trump’s reduced borrowing. If the government borrows less, it competes less with private businesses for credit. That also pushes rates down. Steve claimed that the TRUMP White House made progress here, despite the fact that rising tariffs were the main way revenue was increased. But even he admitted that tariffs lose strength over time, as businesses adjust to avoid them.

Steve also argued that fewer regulations mean the economy runs more efficiently, reducing inflation pressure. “If the supply side of the economy improves, the Fed doesn’t need to lean as hard,” he said. But he didn’t mention Trump’s decision to inject federal money into Intel, the chipmaker, in what many saw as partial nationalization, something that goes against the idea of free markets.

Fed economists and markets push back on Steve’s numbers

Other economists have pointed out that the same Taylor Rule Steve used gives wildly different results depending on how it’s set up. The Atlanta Fed’s own estimates range from 4.1% to 6.25%, depending on what inputs are used. Even if you subtract 1 or 2 percentage points for Trump’s policy changes, you still land at or above today’s rate.

What’s more, Steve himself said last year that r-star, the neutral interest rate, was higher than the Fed believed. He blamed it on rising AI investments and the effects of deglobalization. Both of those trends have only gotten stronger, but he ignored them in his latest speech. That inconsistency has raised questions among economists and investors.

Markets clearly aren’t buying what Steve is selling. Ten-year Treasury inflation-protected securities haven’t moved the way they would if traders believed his estimate. Steve said yields should drop, making those bonds worth about 10% more, but there’s no sign of that happening.

Currency traders haven’t reacted either. Steve’s logic says a looser Fed and falling yields should weaken the dollar, but the currency remains strong. Stock markets have also kept moving based on other signals, not his case. Steve claimed equities should soar under his model, but there’s been no such reaction.

The broader economy also doesn’t look like it needs stimulus. Growth is on track to top 3% this quarter, based on the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow tool. Inflation is rising again. And while the job market is showing some softening, households and businesses are still borrowing from banks. There’s no major sign that high rates are choking off activity.

It’s possible that Steve’s arguments could play out over time. Monetary policy takes a while to Ripple through the economy. Trump’s policies, many of which were rolled out in uneven bursts, might still affect things in the future. But for now, financial markets aren’t reacting to Steve’s case… and neither are his colleagues at the Fed.

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