Global M2 Money Supply Explosion Leaves Bitcoin Rally in the Dust

Central banks are printing money at a pace that makes crypto's wildest bull runs look conservative.

The Inflation Engine

While Bitcoin captured headlines with its 150% surge this year, global M2 money supply grew by a staggering $15 trillion during the same period. Traditional finance's printing presses are running hotter than any blockchain validator.

Currency Debasement on Autopilot

Fiat expansion continues unchecked as governments worldwide treat monetary policy like a bottomless punch bowl at a banker's convention. The numbers don't lie - your dollars are being diluted faster than crypto maximalists' attention spans during a bear market.

Digital Gold's Uphill Battle

Bitcoin's much-touted scarcity narrative faces its ultimate test against central banks' coordinated devaluation efforts. Store of value? More like store of relative value when fiat currencies are racing to the bottom.

Wall Street still thinks quantitative easing is monetary policy rather than organized wealth transfer - but your portfolio knows the difference.

In past bull cycles, the M2 expansion was one of the factors behind BTC bull rallies, especially after BTC gained more mainstream interest. This M2 expansion cycle coincides with the growing influence of ETFs, which tap a wider group of investors. The M2 expansion is also matched by the printing of stablecoins, which are the on-chain source of liquidity for crypto, and work as an on-chain version of central bank printing.

Since 2021, M2 is having more cautious expansion cycles, following the 2020 post-pandemic liquidity injection. In the past months for the year to date, the pace of M2 broad money worldwide expanded at a pace similar to 2020. At the start of 2025, M2 broke its all-time highs for the first time since 2021, following a retraction period. 

The trend is driven by the Bank of China, which expanded its M2 by 10% in the past year. Other central banks have followed a similar trend for the past 12 months. 

BTC lags M2 money supply

The current bull cycle raises the expectation that BTC will keep following the M2 chart, as it has done in the past. Usually, BTC growth lags by up to six months. 

This time around, the rapid expansion of M2 left BTC still trying to catch up, as its all-time peaks proved lower than the prediction. With this range of M2 available, BTC predictions range from new highs at $160K and as high as $250K. 

As of September 24, BTC took a step back to $112,463, standing around 10% below its all-time peak. The available global liquidity also shifts to other assets, as stock indexes and Gold are also at peak valuations. For now, crypto has still acted as a high-risk tech stock, though treasury companies still hold up the idea of sound money.

Gold closed the gap with M2

During the current expansion, gold more readily closed the gap with M2 growth. As Cryptopolitan reported, gold reached a new all-time high at $3,830. Gold even surpassed the pace of growth of M2, with its latest vertical rally. 

Historically, the precious metal has tracked M2 expansion, essentially fulfilling the role of an unofficial gold standard. BTC has so far performed a similar role, showing its potential as a digital gold standard, the narrative of BTC maximalists. 

Overall, M2 has a slow expansion trend over time, and does not guarantee bull markets. However, rapid M2 growth has been a trigger for crypto repricing and growth for other assets. During the current bull cycle, demand for safe-haven investments increased, while some of the extra liquidity went into riskier assets, as a way to offset inflation. 

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