Bitcoin’s Meteoric Rally Nearing Its Final Act? One Analyst Sounds the Alarm

Is the party over for crypto's golden child? Bitcoin's jaw-dropping ascent might be running out of steam—at least according to one market seer.

The reckoning

After defying gravity for years, BTC's chart could be forming what technical analysts call a 'toppy' pattern. The same volatility that minted crypto millionaires now threatens to wipe out latecomers chasing past performance—classic Wall Street déjà vu.

Institutional déjà vu

Traditional finance veterans are nodding sagely. 'We've seen this movie before—dot-com, housing, now this,' quips one hedge fund manager between sips of $28 artisanal coffee. Meanwhile, crypto natives counter that adoption metrics tell a different story.

The final countdown?

Whether this is a temporary pause or the start of crypto winter 2.0 depends who you ask. One thing's certain: the days of easy 100x gains are gone—just ask the 'stablecoin yield farmers' now scraping 4% APY.

For now at least, the S&P 500 is doing well. The flagship index hit a fresh record high on Friday — and that was before Donald TRUMP inked a new trade deal with the EU while on a golfing trip to Scotland, alleviating fears surrounding tariffs. But a lot could change in the coming days. Wall Street is bracing for crucial earnings updates from some of the world’s biggest tech firms, Apple and Amazon among them. All in all, companies representing 40% of the S&P 500’s total market capitalization are set to report back to investors. Disappointments could end up having a detrimental impact on Bitcoin’s value.

In other developments, a flurry of data is set to offer an insight into the health of the U.S. economy, with the Federal Reserve also due to decide whether it will hold interest rates at current levels, or cut the cost of borrowing as Trump wishes. According to the CME FedWatch tool, there’s a 97.9% chance of rates staying as they are — a MOVE that will undoubtedly exasperate the president.

McGlone’s argument these past few months has been pretty straightforward: BTC won’t scale to fresh all-time highs unless the stock market continues to show signs of strength.

“Borne of the financial crisis, cryptocurrencies have been at the forefront of an unprecedented outperformance period for U.S. risk assets that may have reached a nadir. Peak bubble akin to 1929 in the U.S. and 1989 in Japan could trickle down from $100,000 Bitcoin.”

The likes of Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson does believe that the S&P 500 has further room to run. He thinks that the index could jump 15% to 7,200 points next year — however, anticipates a 5% to 10% drop from current levels first, at some stage between now and the end of September. Why? Because we’re going to start seeing the delayed impact of Trump’s tariffs feed through into earnings.

Noelle Acheson, the author of the Crypto is Macro Now newsletter, also argues that the new trade deal between the U.S. and the EU could impact BTC in unexpected ways. For one, there are no guarantees that the prospect of 15% tariffs on most European goods entering the States will be welcomed warmly in Brussels. And two, Trump’s announcements have the potential to strengthen the dollar, which could ultimately end up denting this cryptocurrency’s prospects.

Bitcoin might not be as easy as $123,000.