Bitwise CIO’s Bold 2026 Bitcoin Prediction Shatters 4-Year Cycle Myth
Wall Street's crypto skeptics are sweating bullets—Bitwise's chief investment officer just doubled down on Bitcoin's next bull run. And no, it's not following the script.
The four-year cycle is dead—long live the king
Forget everything you knew about Bitcoin halving cycles. While retail traders keep staring at outdated charts, institutional players are placing bets on a 2026 price explosion that'll make 2021 and 2025 look like warm-up acts.
Why Wall Street hates this prediction
Because it exposes their favorite parlor trick—painting crypto as predictable between martini lunches. The CIO's call implies something radical: Bitcoin's maturing beyond cyclical patterns while traditional finance still can't price it properly.
One thing's certain—when the suits start denying a trend, it's usually time to buy. Just don't tell their risk management committees.
Hougan Says Bitcoin Halving Cycle Losing Its Influence
According to Hougan, several factors are now overriding the influence of the halving cycle. He argued the impact of halvings weakens over time, as each one cuts rewards by a smaller absolute amount.
He also pointed to the broader macro environment, where U.S. presidential frontrunner Donald TRUMP is pressuring the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates, a move that could drive capital away from bonds and toward risk assets like Bitcoin.
“Blow-up risk is attenuated, due to improving regulation and the institutionalization of the space,” Hougan said, noting that clearer rules and expanding institutional involvement have reduced the likelihood of market shocks.
He added that ongoing adoption by traditional firms could extend Bitcoin’s bullish momentum well beyond historical timelines.
However, Hougan also flagged risks. He pointed to the rise of Bitcoin treasury companies — firms that buy BTC using debt or equity issuance — as a potential vulnerability.
DID I HEAR SUPER CYCLE???
The four-year cycle is dead and adoption killed it.@Matt_Hougan says we're going higher in 2026.
Early profit takers will be left behind!!!
Full break down with @JSeyff and @Matt_Hougan in comments
pic.twitter.com/Ffn9penapN
Asset manager VanEck has echoed similar concerns, warning that such companies could be overleveraged if the market turns.
Despite those caveats, Hougan expects a more measured advance ahead. “I think it’s more ‘sustained steady boom’ than super-cycle,” he said, though he acknowledged the path forward will still include volatility.
Bitcoin is currently trading around $118,169, having climbed over 10% in the past month, according to Nansen.
Hougan’s view aligns with recent commentary from CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju, who declared the four-year cycle “dead,” citing a shift in whale behavior.
“Old whales sell to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is bigger than we thought,” Ju noted.
Bitcoin Could Peak in October If 2020 Cycle Repeats, Says Analyst
However, not everyone agrees. crypto analyst Rekt Capital recently warned that if Bitcoin mirrors its 2020 cycle, the market could peak in October, 550 days after the April 2024 halving.
That WOULD keep Bitcoin firmly within its historic rhythm, suggesting the debate over its future trajectory is far from settled.
Bitcoin’s strong performance and growing reputation as a store of value have led analyst Tom Lee to call it “Digital Gold,” with a bold long-term price forecast of $1 million.
Speaking on CNBC, Lee emphasized Bitcoin’s role as an emerging asset class that could challenge gold’s dominance.
He also pointed to recent regulatory progress, such as the approval of the GENIUS Act, as a positive sign for the crypto sector.
Lee believes a $200K–$250K Bitcoin price is achievable, representing just a fraction of gold’s market value.
