Pump.Fun Token Plunges 50%—Is a Comeback Rally Imminent?

Blood in the water? The Pump.Fun token just got halved—classic crypto volatility or a dead cat bounce waiting to happen?

Anatomy of a nosedive

No fancy charts needed: a 50% freefall grabs attention. Meme coins live and die by hype cycles, and this one's currently riding the down elevator.

The comeback calculus

History shows even the most battered tokens find buyers after extreme selloffs. But with liquidity thin and traders trigger-happy, recovery isn't guaranteed—it's a casino where the house always wins (just ask your friendly neighborhood VC).

Make or break levels

Watch for stabilization around the current zone. Either we get the mother of all dip-buying frenzies, or another leg down that makes bagholders nostalgic for 'only' losing half their money.

What Went Wrong With the PUMP Token?

Crypto analyst and Pink Brains co-founder Ingas noted on X (formerly Twitter) that “BONK is much more widely distributed.” Although PUMP is now trading below its launch price, the project still generates consistent protocol revenue. Weekly fees remain close to $10 million, although activity is gradually declining. At the same time, a large share of tokens, around 18%, is held by early investors.

This has raised questions about the short-term Pump.Fun price prediction, especially considering the token’s distribution and current trading volumes.

$PUMP trades below its ICO price, at $3.6B.

Weekly generated fees are also trending down, yet remain at a respectable $10.2M.

Pump smartly launched their DEX, which generates about 50% of all fees.

From the total 0.3% swap fee, 0.05% goes to the team and 25% of that for $PUMP… pic.twitter.com/0ALKEuF7sb

Not all signals are negative, though. The first Pump.Fun seed round raised $12 million, and early backers had a potential return of around 300 times their investment at the time of listing.

First PumpFun seed round was valued at $12M. Meaning seed investors are already up 322x on $PUMP at this round and probably up 1000x at TGE.

Crazy industry. Sadly don‘t see a world where PUMP attracts lots of buyers since everyone on solana is already broke because of PumpFun.…

That potential upside, however, only applies to early investors. Those who bought after the exchange listing and continue to hold are likely sitting on losses. If major holders believe in the project’s long-term prospects, that could have a stabilizing effect. Although current sentiment remains unclear.

Another supporting factor is PUMP’s buyback mechanism: 0.05% of every trade on the PumpSwap decentralized exchange goes to protocol revenue, and one-quarter of that is used to buy back the token from the market. If trading volume increases, so will the size of these buybacks, which could help support the price even if retail interest weakens.

how much do I earn?

each time someone places a trade on your coin, you earn 5 basis points (0.05%) in SOL

that means that with $10,000,000 in trading volume, you earn $5,000

this makes pump fun the most rewarding launchpad for creators BY FAR

Among decentralized exchanges used for meme coin trading, PumpSwap isn’t a top contender. Platforms like Raydium continue to dominate. However, PumpSwap holds a market share above 10% and occasionally outperforms Meteora, according to Dune.

Can an Airdrop Save Pump.Fun?

Many investors expected news of an airdrop following the long-anticipated ICO on July 9. However, no official update has been released since. Researcher Winny noted that overall sentiment remains mixed. While the project is still live, a large portion of tokens is concentrated among top holders.

– $PUMP is now hovering around 1.5B Mcap after a messy launch.

Big allocations went to presale buyers and market makers like Wintermute and DWF.

Initial volumes hit $47M but faded fast. Early whales sold off hard, some even shorted with leverage.

Retail still waiting on an… pic.twitter.com/TXaWqRom7Y

That said, some in the crypto community believe an announcement could still arrive. It could be related to the airdrop or a new exchange listing. Either development could shift the Pump.Fun price prediction in a more optimistic direction.

What my mind says $PUMP will have a binance listing this week + they will announce something today as its been a week without any information regarding the utility and revenue share or air drops, so something will be announced today or this week and then we go parabolic. pic.twitter.com/hGNYyZyD2q

At the same time, there’s a growing sense of disappointment. After all, Pump.Fun — touted as the “king of meme coins” and a casino-style launchpad — finally released its token after months of rumors. Instead of explosive growth, investors have seen a steady decline and radio silence on the airdrop.

Yo @a1lon9 @pumpdotfun have do you done counting money ? Can devz do something now ?

New cex-es ?
New aquisitions ?
New sources of revenues for $PUMP ?
New posts with relevance not stupid memes when u guys are loosing market to $BONK

Appreciate the big money raise, now is… pic.twitter.com/rluGv2W8mO

Some believe the project’s team has no intention of letting PUMP die. Letting the token collapse WOULD damage the platform’s reputation, especially when competitors are gaining momentum.

I'm aping $PUMP at this price, you think @a1lon9 will just let it slowly die?

They probably have billions of $$$ and best market makers on the market, price gonna pump for sure

BIGGEST SCAM IS NOT BUYING RIGHT NOW pic.twitter.com/iLOUVb1b0v

Still, activity on the platform is clearly declining. For investors, that may be a warning sign, particularly given the rapid growth of the LetsBonk ecosystem. Revenue is also falling. As of July 23, Pump.Fun had generated around $20 million for the month, down from $47 million in May and $39 million in June. These figures add more uncertainty to the current Pump.Fun price prediction.

Competitors Eat Into Its Market Share

As previously covered, the LetsBonk launchpad — linked to Bonk (BONK) — has continued to gain traction in the meme coin sector, even following the launch of the PUMP token. Since July 5, LetsBonk has held the dominant position, and its lead has been increasing.

Pump.Fun’s trading volume still trails behind. On July 21, LetsBonk recorded $197 million in trading volume, compared to approximately $50 million for Pump.Fun.

This widening gap has helped BONK build greater trust and visibility within the community. As a result, it continues to eat into Pump.Fun’s market share. Although some of PUMP’s fundamentals remain solid, the token is currently trading at a discount. The market appears to be factoring in concerns about its distribution model and declining user activity.

Pump.Fun Price Prediction: Recovery Ahead or More Pain to Come?

While Pump.Fun still brings in millions in weekly fees and maintains a loyal user base, its native token PUMP has struggled since launch. The price has dropped by nearly 50%, trading far below its debut high. Concerns about token distribution, declining trading volumes, and increased competition from platforms like LetsBonk have weighed heavily on investor sentiment.

Some in the crypto community are still holding out hope for a turnaround, potentially sparked by a long-awaited airdrop or major exchange listing. However, without fresh catalysts and stronger market confidence, PUMP may continue to face downward pressure. For now, the path forward remains uncertain. The next few weeks could determine whether the token rebounds or fades further from the spotlight.