Glassnode’s James Check Issues Stark Warning: Bitcoin Treasury Surge May Fizzle Faster Than Expected
Bitcoin's recent treasury boom might be riding borrowed time—Glassnode lead analyst James Check sounds the alarm.
The hype train hits a speed bump
Corporate treasuries loading up on BTC? Check warns this trend could unravel faster than a DeFi rug pull. Market euphoria’s clashing with on-chain metrics flashing caution signs.
Institutions playing hot potato?
While Fortune 500 balance sheets sport shiny bitcoin allocations, Check’s data suggests these positions are built on quicksand. ‘When the tide turns, these ‘hodlers’ will be first to paper-hand,’ he quips—with the dry humor of someone who’s survived three crypto winters.
The cynical take
Another case of Wall Street ‘adopting’ crypto just in time for the retail exit. History doesn’t repeat—but it sure rhymes when suits start chasing ATHs.
Early Bitcoin Treasuries Thrive as Newcomers Face Uphill Battle
Check argued that while early adopters like Michael Saylor’s Strategy, which holds nearly 600,000 BTC, have cemented their lead, new treasury firms face a steeper climb.
“Nobody wants the 50th Treasury company,” he noted, warning that investors increasingly expect clear differentiation rather than another firm adding Bitcoin to its balance sheet.
“I think we’re already close to the ‘show me’ phase, where it will be increasingly difficult for random company X to sustain a premium and get off the ground without a serious niche,” Check said.
My instinct is the Bitcoin treasury strategy has a far shorter lifespan than most expect, and for many new entrants, it could already be over.
It's not about a measuring contest.
It's about how serious & sustainable your product & Strategy is to sustain the accumulation.
Despite Bitcoin’s recent rally to within 4% of its all-time high, Check suggested the growing number of Bitcoin treasury firms risks saturating the market.
Data from BitcoinTreasuries shows at least 21 new entities added BTC holdings in the past month alone.
Check highlighted that speculative retail investors may flock to these newcomers, but stressed they don’t “have infinite money” to support dozens of copycats chasing the same strategy.
He noted that larger, well-established firms like Strategy have more time to prove their thesis compared to latecomers.
Echoing his concerns, Taproot Wizards co-founder Udi Wizardheimer said many startups entering the Bitcoin treasury space appear to be motivated by short-term profits rather than long-term conviction.
“Many of the folks raising just see easy money and have no idea what they’re doing,” Wizardheimer argued.
He added that weaker players may eventually be acquired at a discount by stronger firms, though he believes the trend could still see “a few more legs.”
Nobody wants the 50th Treasury company.
I think we're already close to the 'show me' phase, where it will be increasingly difficult for random company x to sustain a premium and get off the ground without a serious niche.
Retail speculators buy startup TCos, and they don't have…
Doubts Grow Over Long-Term Viability of Bitcoin Treasury Strategy
Skepticism around the sustainability of the Bitcoin treasury trend is growing.
Breed, a venture capital firm, warned in a June 29 report that only a few Bitcoin treasury companies are likely to survive long term without falling into a “death spiral” as their stock prices converge with the value of their BTC holdings.
The warning echoes recent comments from Matthew Sigel, head of digital asset research at VanEck, who has voiced concerns over the Bitcoin treasury strategies adopted by some publicly traded firms.
Sigel singled out the use of at-the-market (ATM) share issuance programs, arguing that these can become dilutive if a company’s stock price nears its Bitcoin net asset value (NAV).
Meanwhile, New York law firm Pomerantz LLP has filed a class action lawsuit against Michael Saylor’s Strategy, accusing the Bitcoin-focused firm of misleading investors about the profitability and risks of its crypto investment strategy.
