Bitcoin’s Stunning Rebound Turns Red Portfolios Green—Who’s Still Holding Bag?
Bitcoin’s latest surge isn’t just a rally—it’s a lifeline for underwater investors. After months of sideways action, the king of crypto flipped the script, dragging portfolios back into the black. But how long until the ‘HODL’ crowd cashes out?
### The Profit Reckoning
Forget diamond hands—this rebound turned paper hands into winners overnight. On-chain data shows most wallets are now sitting pretty, though skeptics whisper ‘dead cat bounce’ between sips of overpriced CBDC-themed lattes. (Thanks, Fed.)
### The Cynic’s Corner
Wall Street’s still calling it a ‘speculative asset’—right before quietly allocating 2% of pension funds to ‘digital futures hedging strategies.’ Classic finance: talk shit, buy the dip.
Source: Glassnode
Meanwhile, the average paper gains (losses held by the average market participant) stand at +125%. The report claims this suggests that BTC investors are “sitting on significant profits.” This number is still lower than the +180% profitability seen in March 2024 when the price hit the ATH of $73,000 and December 2024 when it hit $00,000.
That said, some $872 million worth is locked in profit daily at this point. This is lower than the $2.8 billion and $3.2 billion in realized profit seen during the ATHs of $73,000 and $107,000, respectively.
Notably, the report highlights, recent drops didn’t “significantly impact investor profitability.” Moreover, valuation frameworks show a positive profitability across holders of all coin ages.
The market jump comes after several days of consecutive, albeit relatively minor, decreases that followed Israel’s attack on Iran, resulting in casualties and further conflict in the region.
Given that geopolitical headlines influence the crypto market, the risk of further downside remains, Glassnode says. However, the decrease in tensions between the two countries helped stabilize market sentiment and fuel price recovery.
Moreover, per the analysts, “the market’s ability to hold the Short-Term Holder cost basis during such a volatile and uncertain period is a constructive signal, suggesting that the bulls are still in control, and that underlying momentum may remain skewed to the upside.”
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Citing Glassnode data, Gadi Chait, Head of Investment at, noted that “Bitcoin’s on-chain metrics continue to showcase the strength of its current market position.” BTC supply in profit rising reinforces “just how bullish recent momentum has been,” Chait says in an email.
However, he also warns that elevated levels of profit are often followed by increased market volatility. “Historically, when such a high percentage of supply sits in profit, the chances of profit-taking rise. That, in turn, introduces short-term market movements even when there is a broadly optimistic outlook,” Chait argues.
Meanwhile, the Glassnode report found that, despite a surge in profitability, investor behavior shows a strong preference for HODLing. The current price range seems insufficient to trigger significant profit-taking, it noted. Several metrics show this, namely declining realized profits, a downtrend in Liveliness, and Long-Term Holder supply hitting a new ATH.
The decline in sell-side pressure can be seen in the total supply held by the Long-Term Holder (LTH) cohort. It reached a new all-time high of 14.7M BTC. “This underscores that HODLing remains the dominant market behavior amongst investors, with accumulation and maturation flows significantly outweighing distribution pressures,” Glassnode says.
Moreover, the behavior of Long-Term Holders further reinforces this argument. After a brief uptick in sell-side pressure into the ATH, this cohort slowed their spending as well.
Finally, the Liveliness metric saw significant upticks during the two previous BTC price ATH formations. This suggested that spending activity and profit taking took over the market. Yet, during the latest ATH formation, Liveliness trended downward, reinforcing “that HODLing remains the dominant behavior among investors, and that a range expansion in price may be necessary to incentivize renewed spending activity.”
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