Bitcoin’s Déjà Vu: BTC Mirrors Covid & Yen Crash Trends as Iran-Israel Tensions Escalate – Time to Buy the Dip?
Bitcoin's price action is flashing eerie similarities to historic crash patterns—just as geopolitical tensions hit a boiling point. Is this a golden opportunity or a trap for overeager bulls?
The Ghosts of Market Crashes Past
BTC charts now replicate the same fractal formations seen during COVID’s Black Thursday and Japan’s yen collapse. Traders are snapping screenshots like it’s 2020 all over again.
Rockets vs. Hashrate
While Israel and Iran exchange missile fire, Bitcoin’s network chugs along—proving, yet again, that bombs can’t stop the blockchain (though they sure make futures traders sweat).
The Dip That Divides
Fund managers scream ‘buy’ while retail investors check their margin balances. Meanwhile, Wall Street quietly reloads stablecoins—because nothing says ‘hedge against WW3’ like a speculative digital asset.
Remember: in crypto, ‘history repeats’ usually means ‘someone’s about to get rekt.’ But hey, at least the volatility beats watching your savings account collect dust.
Historical Selloffs Often Signal Buying Zones
Looking back, bitcoin has a pattern of sharp selloffs during crises, followed by explosive gains. During the March 2020 COVID-19 panic, BTC crashed 63% to under $4,000 before rallying more than 1,700% to $65,000 within a year.
A similar pattern emerged in late 2023 during the Yen carry trade unwind, where Bitcoin dropped 30% only to surge 124% afterward.
This week’s 7% pullback, amid fears of Iran-Israel tensions, echoes those earlier episodes. Analysts argue that these dips often act as prime accumulation zones for long-term holders and institutions, especially when the broader macro narrative hasn’t undergone a structural change.
- March 2020: BTC fell to $3,800 → rebounded to $65,000 (+1,700%)
- Oct 2023: BTC dropped 30% → rallied to $108,652 (+124%)
- June 2025: Current dip of 7% → possible reversal underway?
If history holds, investors may be seeing a temporary fear-driven shakeout rather than a trend reversal.
Bitcoin Technical Setup Shows Potential Breakout
Technically, Bitcoin price prediction remains slightly bullish, but it has to break above a critical Fibonacci level at $106,886. It bounced sharply from the $104,800 support, reclaiming its 50-period EMA at $105,254, a sign that buyers are stepping back in.
The MACD indicator just crossed bullish, hinting at a potential shift in short-term momentum. However, for a clear breakout, BTC must:
- Close above $106,886 to escape the descending structure
- Break above the $107,000 trendline to target $107,807 and $108,991
- Clear $108,991, which opens the path to $111,239 and $112,354
Support remains firm at $105,254 and $104,800. A breakdown below that range could drag BTC toward more prolonged consolidation.
Bitcoin: Final Outlook – Accumulation or Trap?
Bitcoin’s reaction to geopolitical shocks has historically been bullish in the long run. With Fed rate cuts still anticipated later in 2025 and no significant change to Bitcoin’s long-term thesis, the current dip could be less about weakness and more about opportunity.
However, traders should remain cautious. The current bounce is occurring near previous rejection zones. Whether this marks a bullish continuation or a bull trap will likely be decided in the $106,800–$107,000 zone. A confirmed breakout above $108K WOULD signal the start of a new bullish leg.
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