Solana Teeters on Edge: Rising Wedge Threatens 40% Plunge – Will SOL Dodge the Bullet?
Solana’s chart flashes red as a rising wedge breakdown looms—technical analysts brace for potential carnage. The pattern suggests a stomach-churning 40% drop if support cracks, leaving traders scrambling for exits.
Can SOL defy gravity? The smart money’s watching key levels like hawks, but let’s be real—when has crypto ever followed the script? Another day, another ’trust the pattern’ gamble in this casino we call decentralized finance.
Cooling Speculative Interest Has Hit Solana Hard
The SOL/ETH pair faces a breakdown of a 7-month rising wedge pattern, breaching below its lower support during Thursday trading.
A weekly close below the 50SMA—previously a safety net for false breakdowns—would confirm a bearish continuation, targeting a 40% fall toward 0.036 ETH.
The breakdown in SOL/ETH aligns with a visible decline in meme coin-driven activity on Solana. Revenue from its largest meme coin launcher, Pump.fun, has plummeted since early April.
Fees on the platform peaked during the Q1 post-inauguration rally but have since dropped to near-yearly lows, according to Dune Analytics, reflecting fading speculative demand.
Pump.fun played a major role in Solana’s surge to all-time highs between December 2024 and March 2025, with Trump’s pro-crypto stance sparking widespread risk-on behavior.
During this period, total cumulative fees surged past 3 million SOL. With tariff-driven economic FUD, these levels have not been recovered, weakening one of Solana’s primary value drivers.
A May 27 Standard Chartered report reinforces this narrative, arguing that solana may underperform if it cannot diversify beyond meme coins, which currently dominate its transaction activity.
Solana Price Analysis: Is the 40% Drop Inevitable?
The solana price chart also faces a critical juncture with the potential invalidation of a rounded bottom pattern, currently retesting its baseline resistance at $160.
As long as $160 holds, the uptrend from the mid-April market bottom remains intact, with the potential to extend another 80% toward the pattern’s $300 target.
However, a breakdown below this level could deepen Solana’s decline, sending it back to the 200SMA and widening the gap with Ethereum—further validating the bearish SOL/ETH setup.
A credible scenario, with the MACD converging towards a death cross and the RSI plummeting towards the neutral line. These momentum indicators suggest sellers dominate the NEAR term.
That said, long-term Solana still remains within the descending channel forming the handle of a 4-year cup-and-handle pattern.
A short-term crash WOULD continue its consolidation, but it is unlikely to invalidate the potential 175% breakout to $460 implied by the broader cup-and-handle formation if a breakout occurs.
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