$8.05B Bitcoin & Ethereum Options Expiry Looms — Buckle Up for Volatility

Today’s crypto markets face a gut-check moment as a staggering $8.05B in BTC and ETH options contracts reach expiry. These quarterly ’quad witching’ events routinely shake liquidity—and trader nerves.

Will implied volatility spike? Watch open interest at key strike prices. Market makers hedge aggressively before expiry, often amplifying price swings. Retail traders? They’ll likely get steamrolled again by institutional gamma squeezes.

Pro tip: When Wall Street’s crypto derivatives casino hits max leverage, someone’s about to fund someone else’s yacht.

These contracts are skewed towards calls rather than puts, with a put-to-call ratio of 0.73, signaling a bullish bias among traders.

The maximum pain point, the price level at which option holders would lose the most money, is currently $86,000.

Interestingly, BTC is trading far above this level, hovering around $93,471 at the time of writing. This misalignment could lead to price pressure as the market nears expiry.

Ethereum, meanwhile, has 458,926 contracts expiring today with a notional value of $808.3 million.

Its put-to-call ratio is 0.74, indicating a similar sentiment to Bitcoin, albeit with smaller volume.

However, Ethereum trades below its maximum pain point of $1,900, sitting at $1,764.

What makes this expiry more important is the concentration of open interest NEAR strike prices.

Bitcoin options are heavily clustered between $80,000 and $90,000, while Ethereum contracts show activity between $1,800 and $2,000.

Such dense clusters can act as price magnets or resistance zones, depending on market sentiment and the positioning of traders.

This technical setup increases the likelihood of sudden consolidations or sharp reversals during and shortly after the expiry window.

Bullish Bets, Whale Accumulation & Fading Optimism on $100K

Market sentiment going into this expiry has been split. On the one hand, Deribit analysts highlight long-term bullishness among Bitcoin traders, with an increase in activity involving the sale of cash-secured put options.

Options Expiry Alert

At 08:00 UTC tomorrow, over $8B in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit.$BTC: $7.2B notional | Put/Call: 0.73 | Max Pain: $85K$ETH: $801M notional | Put/Call: 0.73 | Max Pain: $1.9K

BTC trades above max pain, ETH below.
Positioning into… pic.twitter.com/A9xI1dqzoV

These options, often backed by stablecoins, serve dual purposes of collecting yield and preparing to buy Bitcoin at a lower price. This suggests a strategy based on buying dips while maintaining exposure to the upside.

The bullish tone is further amplified by call option activity targeting strikes between $90,000 and $110,000 for expiries in April to June 2025.

Investors are positioning based on a breakout above $89,000, with some momentum driven by geopolitical developments.

Notably, the reversal of Trump’s tariff policy on April 9 helped ease global market tensions and possibly triggered a Flow of capital from gold to Bitcoin.

Yet, despite all this, speculative Optimism appears to have its limits. According to the prediction platform Polymarket, there is only a 16% probability that Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in April.

Still, on-chain analytics suggest that mega whales, wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC, are accumulating.

Glassnode’s Accumulation Trend Score for this cohort has climbed to 0.9, indicating aggressive buying.

Whales, defined as addresses holding between 1,000 and 10,000 BTC, have also shown a positive trend recently, with a score of 0.7.

Meanwhile, smaller holders remain in a phase of distribution, showing little conviction in the current rally.

Bitcoin long-term holders accumulate 635K BTC since January as traders double down on bullish options strategies, signaling confidence amid $94K volatility.#Bitcoin #CryptoMarketshttps://t.co/meN9eNz0WJ

These insights suggest that institutional and high-net-worth investors are betting on the recovery and may also be driving it.

The divergence in behavior between large and small investors also suggests that the recent price surge is not merely speculative froth.

Still, it could be underpinned by capital rotation from traditional SAFE havens into digital assets.

Ethereum: Profit-Taking and Whale Sell-Offs Raise Red Flags

While Bitcoin shows signs of structural support from mega whales and bullish option flows, Ethereum presents a more cautious narrative.

Although ETH briefly reclaimed the $1,800 level, its inability to hold above its max pain point of $1,900 paints a less optimistic picture. Moreover, recent whale activity adds to the bearish undertones.

Ali Martinez reports that Ethereum whales offloaded over 63,000 ETH, equivalent to $110 million, within just 48 hours.

Whales capitalized on the recent price surge, unloading over 63,000 #Ethereum $ETH in the past 48 hours! pic.twitter.com/Y4vf1SzDep

In the past week alone, 305,000 ETH (worth about $540 million) were transferred to exchanges, a common precursor to large-scale sell-offs.

These moves follow ETH’s touch of a monthly low of $1,400, erasing nearly seven years of gains, before it bounced back above $1,800 earlier this week.

The recent surge provided whales with an opportunity to exit at a higher price, and many appear to have taken it.

Ethereum’s current situation contrasts sharply with Bitcoin’s bullish undertone.

While Bitcoin miners are reportedly locking in profits of over $18.57 million following the $93,000 breakout, Ethereum holders are actively exiting positions.

#Bitcoin $BTC miners locked in over $18.57 million in profits as prices surged past $93,000! pic.twitter.com/ZgXosyJ5WU

Ethereum also lacks the same level of mega whale support seen in Bitcoin, and its weaker performance suggests market participants are less confident in its short-term prospects.

While there are some minor whale activities, they are not comparable to Bitcoin’s recent surge.

INSIGHT: Ethereum holders accumulate a record 449K ETH despite being underwater, signaling long-term confidence. But technicals show resistance at $1,895, with $2,142 as a key level for recovery.

Are you bullish on ETH? pic.twitter.com/I20CptyvK2

This divergence is further reflected in the options market. While Bitcoin options display strong bullish structures for future expiries, Ethereum’s volumes, although higher than last week, remain modest in comparative terms.

And unlike BTC, ETH is struggling to build momentum above key resistance zones.

In summary, while today’s $8.05 billion expiry event is primarily framed in terms of short-term volatility, it reflects deeper market dynamics.

Bitcoin is entering a phase of renewed accumulation among large investors, underpinned by geopolitical stability and a return of risk appetite.

Ethereum, however, remains vulnerable to profit-taking and a lack of directional conviction.