JPMorgan Spots Crypto Bottom as ETF Flows Turn Two-Way—Bullish Reversal Ahead?

Wall Street's crypto call just flipped bullish.

JPMorgan analysts—yes, the same bank that once called Bitcoin a 'fraud'—now signal the crypto sell-off may have found its floor. Their reasoning? ETF flows are no longer a one-way street out of digital assets.

The Two-Way Street Emerges

For months, the narrative was simple: institutional money fled through ETF exits, dragging prices down. That dynamic is shifting. Fresh data shows capital moving both in and out—a sign of renewed debate, not outright capitulation. It's the market equivalent of a heated boardroom argument instead of everyone heading for the fire exit.

What a Bottom Actually Means

In trader-speak, a 'bottom' isn't a guarantee prices only go up. It's the point where selling pressure exhausts itself. When the last panicked seller exits, the floor is set. JPMorgan's analysis suggests that moment may have arrived, with ETF flow stabilization acting as the canary in the coal mine. The relentless outflow? It's over.

The Institutional Weathervane

Spot Bitcoin ETFs became the dominant sentiment gauge. Their flows dictated the daily narrative. Now, with inflows reappearing on select days, the story gets complex. It hints at a division: some institutions are dipping toes back in, betting the worst is priced in. It's a classic Wall Street move—talk down an asset class while quietly building a position. (Some things never change.)

Why This Time Could Be Different

Previous crypto winters were retail-driven. This slump was institutional. Their return, even tentatively, carries more weight. It's not meme-fueled hype; it's capital allocation based on cold, hard charts and macro triggers. The smart money is starting to see value.

The road ahead won't be smooth—regulatory headwinds and volatility are baked in. But the most important flow might be the one reversing: the flow of institutional sentiment. When the giants stop only selling and start selectively buying, you pay attention. The bottom isn't a date on a calendar; it's a shift in behavior. And that shift appears to be underway.

Spot ETF Flows Stabilize After Late-2025 De-Risking

The bank’s read lines up with tape-level evidence that flow is now, not one-way. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs printed, then flipped to. That pattern matters because it replaces “forced reduction” with “tactical rotation,” which historically tightens intraday ranges and improves bid support in BTC perp funding regimes.

JPMorgan’s framework also matches prior positioning commentary from Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou’s team, which separatedfrom. That distinction keeps the correction narrative anchored inrather than a broken market plumbing story.

Outside the ETF channel, traditional allocators received a separate “risk-off relief” input this week when, while it runs a broader review. Shares of Strategy’s (MSTR) traded higher after the update, reducing near-term forced-selling risk for passive index products that hold crypto-proxy equities.

MSCI confirmed Digital Asset Treasury Companies will remain in MSCI Indexes for the Feb 2026 review. A strong outcome for neutral indexing and economic reality. Thank you to our investors and the $BTC community.

Why Two-Way Flows Are Changing the Trade Setup

The trade here is less about a single JPMorgan call and more about: late 2025 looked like an unwind where ETF redemptions and perp deleveraging reinforced each other, while early January has shown, which desks can hedge more cleanly via basis and options.

If MSCI keeps the “DATCO” bucket in benchmarks through the February review window, systematic equity reallocations stop acting like a hidden sell program for crypto beta, which supports tighter correlations among BTC spot, CME basis, and listed ETF flow momentum into month-end rebalancing.