CPI Print: The Make-or-Break Moment for Crypto’s Year-End Rally
All eyes turn to inflation data—this week's CPI report could spark crypto's holiday surge or send it into hibernation.
The Inflation Litmus Test
Market analysts are framing the upcoming Consumer Price Index release as the single most important economic indicator for digital assets in 2025. The logic is brutally simple: a cooler-than-expected print fuels bets on looser monetary policy, while hotter numbers could slam the brakes on risk appetite. Forget technical analysis for a day—this is macro's time to shine.
Rally or Wreckage?
A favorable CPI read could unleash pent-up institutional capital, pushing Bitcoin and major altcoins toward year-end targets. The opposite scenario? A swift reminder that crypto still dances to the Fed's tune, no matter how much we talk about decentralization. Some traders are already positioning for volatility, with options activity spiking around the announcement window.
The clock is ticking. One government data release now holds more sway over crypto fortunes than a dozen protocol upgrades—a sobering reality for an industry built to bypass traditional finance gatekeepers.
Bitcoin Stalls Near $85K as Risk-Off Mood Limits Upside, Analyst Says
Bitcoin enters the data release on fragile footing. The largest cryptocurrency slipped around 2% on Tuesday to near $85,300 and has traded sideways between $85,000 and $90,000 throughout the week.
Samer Hasn, senior market analyst at XS.com, said the failure to push higher reflects a broader risk-off tone driven by mixed US macro signals.
Recent data offered little clarity. Nonfarm payrolls surprised to the upside, unemployment ticked higher, and S&P Global PMI readings missed expectations.
“The mixed signal kept bearish momentum intact and limited any immediate upside response,” Hasn said.
Still, Bitcoin appears to be finding tentative support near the $85,000 level. Hasn noted early signs of bargain accumulation, with dip buyers stepping in cautiously after weeks of selling pressure.
Today’s
CPI print is crucial.
Jerome Powell recently said rates are at good levels to wait & observe the data.
A higher than expected CPI print today would be very bad for markets, as it would make future rate cuts less likely.
On the flipside, a lower than expected print… pic.twitter.com/3GIgZ22wxb
On-chain data from BGeometrics supports that view, showing small increases in whale wallets and retail-sized holders owning between 1 and 100 BTC.
At the same time, addresses holding 100 to 1,000 BTC declined slightly, suggesting a pause in the heavy whale distribution seen in November.
ETF flows add another layer of support. Data from SoSo Value shows US spot bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $450 million in inflows on Tuesday, even as futures market activity cooled.
Derivatives data points to a continued reduction in speculation. CoinGlass reports that crypto futures open interest has fallen by roughly $11 billion over the past week, nearing its lowest level since June.
With leverage being flushed out and spot demand stabilizing, Hasn said the $85,000 area is starting to look less like a trap and more like a level buyers are willing to defend.
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Holder Selling May Be Nearing Its End: K33
Bitcoin has seen sustained sell-side pressure from long-term holders since 2024, but that trend may be nearing exhaustion, according to a new report from research and brokerage firm K33.
The firm estimates that around 1.6 million BTC, worth roughly $138 billion, has re-entered circulation over the past two years as early investors took profits.
K33 head of research Vetle Lunde said the scale of these movements points to deliberate selling rather than technical factors like wallet consolidation or ETF-related transfers.
The report notes that 2024 and 2025 rank among the largest years on record for long-term supply reactivation, driven not by speculation, but by direct selling into deeper institutional liquidity.
