Bitcoin Price Prediction: Active Wallets Hit 2023 Lows as Liquidity Evaporates — Will BTC Smash $100K and Silence the Bears?

Bitcoin's network activity just plunged to levels not seen since 2023. The number of active wallets is cratering, and market liquidity is thinning out faster than a trader's patience during a sideways grind. This isn't just a blip—it's a fundamental shift in on-chain behavior that has everyone asking one question.

The Liquidity Exodus

Where did all the money go? The data doesn't lie. The drop in active participants signals a classic consolidation phase, where weak hands get shaken out and only the committed remain. It's the quiet before the storm, or the calm before a deeper capitulation—depending on which analyst's newsletter you read.

The $100K Question

Can Bitcoin defy the bearish technicals and mount a historic rally to reclaim the mythical $100,000 threshold? The path is fraught. Thinner liquidity often leads to higher volatility, meaning moves can be explosive in either direction. Bulls argue this is the necessary cleanse before the next leg up. Bears see it as confirmation of a weakening network effect. One cynical fund manager, who probably still thinks blockchain is a type of ski lift, was overheard calling it "peak digital gold narrative fatigue."

Invalidation or Confirmation?

The coming weeks will deliver a verdict. A decisive break and hold above key resistance levels would not just be a rally—it would be a wholesale invalidation of the prevailing bear thesis. It would signal that Bitcoin's value proposition transcends short-term user metrics. Failure to do so, however, gives the skeptics all the ammunition they need. The market's about to find out if this is genius accumulation or just another hope-fueled bubble waiting to pop.

Fear Index Hits Extreme Territory as Year-End Approaches

Bitcoin’s Fear & Greed Index has plummeted to 11, signaling Extreme Fear.

Crypto Markets Enter a Slowdown Phase

“The number of active bitcoin wallets has fallen to its lowest level in the past year, indicating that even when prices move, fewer participants are actually transacting.” – By @xwinfinance pic.twitter.com/pt9RAEwx0M

According to a Japanese analyst at XWIN Research, fresh capital inflows into Bitcoin are beginning to diminish, and as year-end nears, both participation and capital typically become less active, further reducing market liquidity.

“In such an environment, price action tends to become more volatile due to thin liquidity. At the same time, reduced noise allows the underlying supply and demand dynamics to become clearer,” the analysts explained.

Crypto analyst Moreno also observed that Bitcoin sits at a level carrying more significance than appearances suggest.

The current $86,000 price rests above the True Market Mean Price (TMMP), which represents the average on-chain acquisition price of investors, excluding miners.

Moreno projects that if Bitcoin maintains above the TMMP ($81,500), the bull trend WOULD be well alive.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Weekly Chart Shows Critical $81K Defense Zone

Bitcoin’s weekly chart displays a clear transition from expansion to correction following repeated failures above the $100,000 psychological resistance.

Price has definitively lost the $100,000 level and now trades below key moving averages, which have begun rolling over and functioning as dynamic resistance around the $103,000–$108,000 zone.

The most crucial structural level on the downside sits at $81,000, marked as the average cost basis support.

Price currently hovers just above this zone, making it a critical inflection point for the broader market.

The MACD remains firmly bearish with expanding negative histogram bars, signaling downside momentum still dominates despite the recent slowdown in selling pressure.

Moreover, a sustained weekly close below $81,000 would expose the final bull-market defense NEAR $74,000, where stronger long-term buyers are expected to emerge.

Conversely, reclaiming $100,000 and maintaining above it would be necessary to invalidate bearish momentum and reopen pathways for advancement back toward the $105,000–$110,000 range.

Pepenode Raises $2.3M Ahead of Bitcoin Post-Breakout Rally

If Bitcoin finally breaks the $100,000 resistance and initiates the 2026 bull run, meme coins like Pepenode (PEPENODE) would experience increased demand.

Pepenode is a new crypto project that’s already raised over $2.3 million despite the crypto market losing over 30% of its value since October.

It’s a game where you can mine coins without needing expensive hardware setups.

You play the game in your web browser, set up VIRTUAL mining rigs, and upgrade your facilities to earn PEPENODE tokens.

Now that more people are investing in Pepenode’s mining rigs, the presale price is advancing rapidly.

To join the presale before the ongoing round sells out, go to the official Pepenode website, and connect a crypto wallet like Best Wallet.

You can then buy PEPENODE tokens forand pay with crypto using ETH or USDT, or use a bank card for fast payment.