Coinbase’s Next Big Move: Can It Deliver After the Monad Letdown?

Coinbase is gearing up. Again. The exchange giant has a history of ambitious roadmaps—and a matching history of market skepticism. After the underwhelming reception of projects like Monad, the crypto community's patience wears thin. Big promises are cheap in this industry; execution is the rare currency.

The Bull vs. The Bear Case

On one side, you have the undeniable scale. Coinbase remains a gateway for millions. Its regulatory groundwork and brand recognition are assets competitors would kill for. New product whispers—from deeper DeFi integration to expanded institutional offerings—suggest a platform trying to evolve beyond a simple buy-and-hold vault.

Then there's the other side. The side that remembers grand announcements followed by delayed features and technical hiccups. The side that watches agile, chain-native protocols innovate at a blistering pace and wonders if any centralized entity, no matter how well-funded, can keep up. It's the classic tech dilemma: does size create strength, or just inertia?

A Test of Trust and Tempo

The coming months won't be about another slick presentation. They'll be a brutal audit of capability. Can Coinbase ship meaningful, competitive products on a timeline the market respects? Or will it become the legacy bank of crypto—respected, used, but never feared by innovators? The market has priced in the hope; now it demands the proof. After all, in crypto, 'future potential' is the most crowded trade on the board.

l‘It Will Benefit Crypto Users Least’

On the surface, the setup looks favorable for Coinbase. The platform benefits from access to US users. Expectations of a more crypto-friendly policy environment under Donald TRUMP also help. Some even expect changes at the Federal Reserve that could further support risk assets.

But recent events have complicated the picture.

The Monad (MON) token launch is a key example. Coinbase was the only platform that hosted the ICO. It was also a rare chance for US users to participate. Expectations were high. The outcome disappointed many. Around 50% of the token supply went to insiders. After launch, MON fell nearly 60% from its all-time high. Trading also opened below the pre-sale price.

That experience seems to have shaped how parts of the community now view Coinbase’s upcoming system update. One user pointed to a Coinbase report on altseason published in August. They also noted that many tokens listed under Coinbase Markets later lost most of their value:

Whatever this ‘system update’ is, one thing is certain: it will benefit crypto users least, and of them, Base users nothing at all. We know this for a fact because Coinbase Markets did everything they could to not support base coins last year. Now 99% of those coins are close to literally zero.

Is Coinbase Launching Prediction Markets?

Speculation around Coinbase entering prediction markets has been building since November. Screenshots of a possible interface began circulating on X. Around the same time, talk of a partnership with Kalshi started to spread.

Those reports were later supported by The Information, citing people familiar with the matter. In December, Bloomberg and CNBC also reported that Coinbase is working with Kalshi, again referencing unnamed sources.

Prediction markets have become one of the most discussed narratives in crypto. Polymarket currently leads the space. Interest in the platform has grown, partly due to expectations around a possible airdrop.

Polymarket does have one clear limitation. It is not available to US users. While access is planned and a waitlist exists, the restriction remains.

If Coinbase does launch its own prediction markets product, it could challenge Polymarket’s position. Notably, Coinbase appears to have chosen Kalshi, one of Polymarket’s main competitors, as its partner.

Still, early leaders in a niche are often written off too quickly. Similar arguments appear whenever new meme coin launchpads emerge. Volumes shift for a while, but Pump.Fun has repeatedly regained its top spot. Something similar could happen here. The Monad case remains a reminder that Coinbase’s attempts to expand beyond exchange services have not always gone smoothly.