Vitalik Buterin Proposes Onchain Gas Futures Market for Predictable Fees
Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin just threw a curveball at the crypto world's most persistent headache: unpredictable transaction fees. His latest proposal? An onchain gas futures market that could let users lock in costs months in advance.
The Fee Forecast Problem
Gas prices on Ethereum have been a rollercoaster for years—a sudden NFT mint or DeFi craze can send costs soaring, wrecking budgets and user experience. Developers and traders are left guessing, often paying a premium for certainty.
How a Gas Futures Market Would Work
The core idea is simple yet radical. Instead of paying spot prices, users could buy contracts guaranteeing a fixed gas price for future transactions. Think of it as hedging against network congestion. Need to execute a complex smart contract in three months? Buy the gas today.
This isn't just about convenience. Predictable fees could unlock new financial models and long-term smart contract deployments that are too risky under today's volatile conditions.
The Cynical Take from Finance
Of course, Wall Street veterans might smirk. The finance sector perfected turning volatility into a product centuries ago. Now crypto, the industry built on disrupting traditional finance, is proposing... derivative contracts. The irony isn't lost on anyone who remembers 2008.
But here's the crypto twist: it's all onchain, transparent, and accessible without a brokerage license. That's the real disruption—democratizing financial instruments that were once walled off by institutions.
The Road Ahead
The proposal is still in its infancy, facing technical hurdles and community debate. But the signal is clear: Ethereum's leadership is aggressively tackling usability. For an ecosystem aiming to be the world's financial computer, reliable pricing isn't a luxury—it's a necessity.
If implemented, this could be the quiet infrastructure upgrade that does more for mainstream adoption than any flashy NFT drop. After all, what good is a decentralized bank if you can't predict the cost of a withdrawal?
Buterin Says Onchain Gas Futures Could Let Users Lock In Ethereum Fees
Buterin argued that an onchain gas futures system would give users the ability to lock in gas prices for future time windows, offering greater certainty as Ethereum scales.
The concept mirrors traditional futures markets, such as those for commodities, where buyers and sellers agree on a fixed price for a future date to hedge risk or speculate on price movements.
Applied to Ethereum, it WOULD allow users to prepay for a specific amount of gas during a chosen time period, protecting them from unexpected fee spikes.
“People would get a clear signal of expectations for future gas fees, and would even be able to hedge against future gas prices,” Buterin wrote.
He suggested that a market-built signal for future base fees could help traders, developers, and heavy network users plan with far more confidence, especially those managing large volumes of transactions or operating decentralized applications.
We need a good trustless onchain gas futures market.
(Like, a prediction market on the BASEFEE)
I've heard people ask: "today fees are low, but what about in 2 years? You say they'll stay low because of increasing gaslimit from BAL + ePBS + later ZK-EVM, but do I believe you?"…
Gas costs have eased this year, with basic Ethereum transfers averaging around 0.474 gwei, roughly one cent, according to Etherscan.
However, more complex activity still comes at a higher cost, including token swaps ($0.16), NFT transactions ($0.27), and cross-chain bridging ($0.05).
Despite the overall decline, fee volatility remains a challenge. YCharts data shows average Ethereum fees started 2025 NEAR $1 before falling to $0.30, punctuated by swings as high as $2.60 and as low as $0.18.
Buterin’s proposal aims to smooth these fluctuations by giving users a mechanism to anticipate and manage costs, particularly ahead of high-demand periods.
Ethereum Exchange Balances Hit Record Lows
As reported, Ether held on centralized exchanges has dropped to an all-time low, with balances falling to just 8.7% of total supply, the smallest share since Ethereum launched in 2015.
The decline marks a 43% drop since July, a shift analysts say is tightening liquid supply and setting the stage for a potential market squeeze.
The rapid drawdown is linked to structural changes in how ETH is being used. More tokens are flowing into staking, restaking protocols, layer-2 networks, DeFi collateral loops, digital-asset treasury holdings, and long-term self-custody, all destinations that rarely send ETH back to exchanges.
Research outlet Milk Road said ETH is now in its “tightest supply environment ever,” noting that Bitcoin’s exchange balance remains significantly higher.
