Asia Market Open: Bitcoin Holds Firm Near $93K, Stocks Adrift as Weak US Data Fuels Fed Rate Cut Bets

Bitcoin's holding pattern around the $93,000 mark is the morning's main event, while traditional stock markets drift without clear direction. The catalyst? Fresh economic prints from the US that came in softer than expected, giving traders more reason to believe the Federal Reserve's next move will be a cut.

The Data That Changed the Game

Forget the analyst chatter—the numbers did the talking. The latest batch of US economic indicators landed with a thud, not a bang. Market participants took one look and immediately priced in a higher probability of the Fed stepping in with cheaper money. It's the old playbook: weak data equals potential stimulus, and the market loves nothing more than a central bank ready to open the taps.

Crypto's Calm vs. Wall Street's Whiplash

While equity traders scramble to reposition, the crypto market shows a notable steadiness. Bitcoin's resilience near a key psychological level suggests its decoupling from traditional risk assets isn't just theoretical—it's playing out in real-time. This isn't just stability; it's a statement of maturity, as digital gold finds its footing while old-school markets get tossed by every data wave.

What's Next for the Fed Put?

All eyes are now on the Fed's language. Every weak data point strengthens the market's conviction in the so-called 'Fed put'—the belief that the central bank will cushion any fall. It's a fascinating dance of pessimism about the economy breeding optimism for markets. After all, on Wall Street, bad news for Main Street is often good news for the ticker tape—a cynical truth that never seems to get old.

The stage is set. Bitcoin stands as a pillar of relative strength, while traditional finance waits for its next cue from the world's most powerful bankers. The independence play is on, and for now, crypto isn't waiting for permission.

“With a rate cut on December 10th largely priced in, all eyes are now on 2026 monetary policy expectations, and so Hassett WOULD be a welcome appointment for markets,” Puckrin said.

Market snapshot

• Bitcoin: $93,609, up 0.9%
• Ether: $3,215, up 5.9%
• XRP: $2.20, up 0.7%
• Total crypto market cap: $3.27 trillion, up 1.8%

Bitcoin Eyes Breakout As Traders Track Key US Jobless Data

Akshat Siddhant, lead Quant analyst at Mudrex, said a decisive breakout above current levels could clear the path to the $103,000 supply zone.

He added that traders are watching US weekly jobless claims later on Thursday, which could help support Bitcoin’s upward trajectory if they reinforce the case for easier policy.

Across equities, Asia traded mixed. Japan’s Nikkei 225 ROSE about 0.8%, while MSCI’s broad index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan slipped around 0.1%, weighed by declines in Korea and New Zealand.

Mainland China benchmarks were little changed to slightly higher and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index inched up, underscoring a cautious tone.

Rate Cut Probability Climbs As US Data Softens

US index futures were steady after Wednesday’s gains, with contracts on the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all modestly higher. European futures were flat to slightly weaker, with DAX and FTSE 100 edging down and CAC 40 a touch stronger.

Overnight on Wall Street, small caps led the advance. The Russell 2000 jumped about 1.9% and the S&P 500 notched a second straight rise after US private payrolls posted their biggest drop in more than two and a half years.

An Institute for Supply Management survey showed services employment contracting in November and the prices paid subindex falling to a seven-month low, even as overall services activity held near 52.6.

The run of softer numbers has strengthened the case for a near-term cut. Fed funds futures now imply roughly an 89% chance of a 25-basis-point reduction at the meeting next week, up from about 83% a week earlier, according to CME’s FedWatch tool.

Greenback Hits Five-Week Low, Investors Track Signals On Future Fed Moves

The dollar index slipped around 0.4% to 98.878, touching a five-week low and extending its losing streak to a ninth session. The yield on the 10-year US Treasury was steady near 4.07% after a Financial Times report said bond investors have expressed concern to the Treasury that Hassett could push for aggressive rate cuts aligned with President Donald Trump’s preferences.

Investors are also dealing with a backlog of US data after a record 43-day government shutdown earlier in the year disrupted the FLOW of official releases.

As delayed reports filter out, traders are placing more weight than usual on private sector surveys and high frequency indicators to gauge the Fed’s path.

The next major macro test comes on Friday with the release of the personal consumption expenditures index, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Until then, markets are trading on the assumption that a December cut is virtually locked in and that 2025 and 2026 policy will hinge on how quickly growth and employment cool from here.