Fed Rate Cuts Ahead: Here’s How Bitcoin and Ethereum Could Skyrocket Based on Historical Patterns
Federal Reserve rate cuts have historically sent crypto markets soaring - and the next move could trigger another massive rally.
Historical Crypto Surges Following Fed Easing
When the Fed cuts rates, capital floods into risk assets. Bitcoin's previous post-rate-cut performance shows gains exceeding 150% within six months. Ethereum typically follows with even more explosive moves, sometimes doubling Bitcoin's returns during monetary easing cycles.
The Liquidity Firehose Effect
Cheap money doesn't just trickle into crypto - it gushes. Traditional investors, tired of microscopic bond yields and over-regulated stock markets, pivot hard toward digital assets. The last easing cycle saw institutional crypto allocations triple as pension funds and hedge funds chased real returns.
Of course, Wall Street will claim they saw it coming all along - right after they finish downgrading their crypto research departments.
The September 2024 cut sparked the biggest rally of the cycle. Within a week, Bitcoin jumped about 6.6% to around $64,300, and Ethereum climbed nearly 13% to $2,650. Over the next month, both gained roughly 11%. That could mean investors welcomed the Fed’s first clear pivot toward easier policy.
After the November 2024 cut, Bitcoin surged 16% in a week and more than 32% in a month. Ethereum rose 17% and 47.5% over the same periods.
By December 2024, the rally began to cool. bitcoin briefly broke above $108,000 before falling back below $100,000. Ethereum dropped about 10% over the following month.
The most recent cut in September 2025 came at a time of already low rates and softer sentiment. Bitcoin slipped about 7% in the next month, and Ethereum lost around 13%. That could mean the impact of monetary easing is starting to fade for crypto.
The chart below tracks the ethereum price against changes in the Fed’s rate. It shows general ETH/ USD price trends from September 2024 through October 2025. The right axis shows how much the Fed funds rate has fallen in total since the start of the easing cycle.
The data shows how the first rate cuts in September and November 2024 came with strong crypto rallies, while the later ones in December 2024 and September 2025 brought smaller or even negative moves. It suggests the market’s reaction weakened as investors had already priced in easier policy.
What It Means
The first two moves in September and November 2024 delivered the biggest gains, with Bitcoin and Ethereum both posting double-digit jumps over the following weeks.
However, by late 2024, the excitement seems to have faded. Markets had already priced in continued easing, and later cuts brought little or no upside. The strongest reaction came early in the cycle, when investors first sensed a turn toward looser policy.
As the Fed is expected to cut rates again this month, history shows that Bitcoin and Ethereum often react quickly at first but lose steam as the easing cycle continues. Market sentiment, regulation, and global risks also play a role, which suggests that monetary policy is only part of the story.
