Polymarket Predicts Deeper Bitcoin & Ethereum Plunge This November
Traders are betting big on crypto carnage as November approaches.
Market Sentiment Turns Bearish
Polymarket's prediction markets show growing conviction that Bitcoin and Ethereum face significant downside pressure. The smart money isn't just predicting a dip—they're positioning for a full-scale November nosedive.
Technical Indicators Flash Red
With leveraged positions stacking up and institutional interest waning, the stage appears set for another leg down. The same traders who called previous bottoms now see more pain ahead.
November's Perfect Storm
Seasonal patterns meet macroeconomic headwinds as traditional finance veterans smirk about 'digital gold' looking more like fool's gold. Another month, another chance for crypto to prove its volatility isn't just a feature—it's the main attraction.
Bitcoin sentiment: confidence is gone
Not long ago, ambitious forecasts pinned bitcoin above $200,000 before year-end. Today, speculation has taken a very different turn. The scenario that traders are betting on most heavily is BTC dropping beneath $80,000 during November, which has now become the dominant bet on Polymarket.
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A deeper fall toward $75,000 is the second most-backed outcome, and Optimism for any major rally is nearly nonexistent — the likelihood of Bitcoin trading above $115,000 is being priced at barely 2%. It’s not just fear; it’s a market that has stopped believing in a meaningful short-term recovery.
Ethereum forecasts fall even faster
If Bitcoin’s outlook is grim, Ethereum’s is worse. The majority of Polymarket speculators expect ETH to continue bleeding rather than stabilizing.
The leading prediction prices ETH below $2,600 with a 68% likelihood. The next most-backed outcome pushes the decline further, with a 33% chance of slipping below $2,400. Even a flash crash scenario — below $2,200 — is actively priced at 17%.
Meanwhile, the idea of ethereum making a dramatic comeback has essentially evaporated. Only 2% of the market sees ETH surging above $4,000, showing that confidence in an explosive recovery has been nearly wiped out.
What this tells us about the market
Crypto isn’t just falling — expectations are collapsing with it. The psychological shift might be more important than the price action itself. For a market that has historically treated October and November as launchpads for major rallies, the current reversal symbolizes a turning point that few expected.
The biggest takeaway is not the percentage drops, but the collective belief that they are not finished. Polymarket’s pricing reflects a market preparing for continuation, not an imminent rebound. Until that mentality changes, speculative money will stay defensive — and long-awaited seasonal optimism won’t return.
