Bitcoin Plummets Below $84K as Outflows Surge: NFCI Signals December Rally Ahead

Why Is Bitcoin Struggling Below $84,000?

The flagship cryptocurrency hit turbulence in late November 2025, crashing to $80,000 on Friday - its lowest level in months. Despite a brief rebound attempt to $84,000, BTC remains under intense pressure, down 12% weekly and 23% monthly. This breakdown also pushed Bitcoin below its 100-week exponential moving average for the first time since October 2023, a critical technical level that had previously served as reliable support.

The Great Crypto Cashout: $2B Flees Markets

Data from The Kobeissi Letter reveals the staggering scale of the retreat. Friday's plunge triggered $1.5 billion in Leveraged liquidations within just four hours - a testament to how quickly forced selling escalated. Crypto funds bled $2 billion last week alone (the highest since February), with Bitcoin accounting for $1.4 billion and Ethereum $689 million of the exodus. Over three consecutive weeks, total outflows reached $3.2 billion.

US spot ETFs amplified the pressure, posting their third straight week of withdrawals at $1.22 billion. Total crypto assets under management have shrunk 27% from October's peak to $191 billion - a decline analysts consider structural rather than temporary.

NFCI's Crystal Ball: Why December Could Spark a Rally

While charts look grim, macro analyst Miad Kasravi from the BTCC research team highlights an intriguing historical pattern. Backtesting 105 financial indicators over a decade, the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) consistently predicts major bitcoin moves 4-6 weeks in advance.

Current NFCI reading of -0.52 (and falling toward -0.60) historically correlates with 15-20% BTC gains per 0.10 point drop. Similar setups preceded:

• 2022-23 Rally: NFCI loosened in October 2022 while BTC stagnated at $16k. By January 2023, prices exploded 94% to $31k
• Mid-2024 Surge: July's NFCI tension peak preceded BTC's climb from $53k to $107k (+98%) by August

The Liquidity Tsunami Coming in December

Kasravi notes a critical Fed policy shift in December: the central bank will reallocate mortgage-backed securities to Treasury bonds. While not officially quantitative easing, this "not-QE" maneuver (similar to 2019's MOVE preceding BTC's 40% rally) will inject banking liquidity.

If NFCI continues declining through mid-December, we could see Bitcoin significantly outperform altcoins by 20-30% initially as institutions flock to the most liquid asset. The typical 4-6 week NFCI lag suggests the sweet spot for movement falls between early to mid-December 2025.