Barrick Gold: Storm Warning Ahead of Q3 2025 Earnings – Can the New CEO Steer the Ship?
- Why Is Barrick Gold Under the Microscope This Week?
- A Surprise Leadership Shakeup: Bad Timing?
- Mali Crisis: Billions at Stake
- Q3 Earnings Preview: High Hopes, Higher Risks
- Gold’s Shine vs. Barrick’s Shadows
- Investment Outlook: Buy, Hold, or Bail?
- Key Questions for Barrick’s Earnings Call
Barrick Gold faces a pivotal week as it prepares to release its Q3 2025 earnings amid a leadership shakeup and escalating tensions in Mali. With gold prices surging over 50% this year, the interim CEO must navigate operational challenges, rising costs, and geopolitical risks. Will Barrick capitalize on the gold boom or stumble under pressure? Here’s what investors need to know.
Why Is Barrick Gold Under the Microscope This Week?
Barrick Gold, the Canadian mining giant, is at a crossroads. On November 10, 2025, the company will report its Q3 earnings—a moment overshadowed by unexpected leadership changes and a brewing crisis in Mali. The gold sector is booming, but Barrick’s underperformance relative to peers like Agnico Eagle (+110% vs. Barrick’s +37% over five years) raises questions. Can interim CEO Mark Hill turn the tide?
A Surprise Leadership Shakeup: Bad Timing?
In late September 2025, Barrick shocked investors when CEO Mark Bristow—the architect of its 2019 Randgold merger—exited abruptly, years ahead of schedule. Bristow was supposed to oversee the Reko Diq project in Pakistan until 2028. Instead, 30-year industry veteran Mark Hill stepped in as interim CEO. Hill now faces a baptism by fire: presenting quarterly results while managing operational headaches. As one analyst quipped, "Taking the wheel during a gold rush sounds great—until you realize the brakes are failing."
Mali Crisis: Billions at Stake
While gold prices soared in 2025, Barrick’s Loulo-Gounkoto complex in Mali became a geopolitical tinderbox. Since November 2024, four employees have been detained, and Mali’s military government installed a forced administrator at the site—a key asset contributing 5-10% of Mali’s GDP. Barrick claims 70% of the mine’s economic benefits Flow to Mali, but a World Bank arbitration case drags on. "This isn’t just about gold; it’s about sovereignty," notes a Bamako-based economist. With $10 billion in historical contributions to Mali’s economy, the stakes couldn’t be higher.
Q3 Earnings Preview: High Hopes, Higher Risks
Analysts expect Q3 earnings of $0.57 per share (up 84% YoY), driven by record gold prices and higher production. But costs are creeping up—Q2’s all-in sustaining costs rose 12% to $1,684/oz due to Mali disruptions. For 2025, management warns of further cost inflation. "The math only works if gold stays above $2,000," warns a BTCC commodities strategist. Investors will scrutinize Hill’s ability to balance growth and cost control.
Gold’s Shine vs. Barrick’s Shadows
Gold’s 2025 rally should be a tailwind, but Barrick’s challenges are company-specific. The Mali standoff could dent output, while leadership uncertainty may delay strategic decisions. Meanwhile, rivals like Newmont are doubling down on efficiency. "Barrick’s playing catch-up in a marathon where others are sprinting," observes a TradingView analyst.
Investment Outlook: Buy, Hold, or Bail?
With Barrick’s stock lagging peers, much hinges on Q3 results and Hill’s roadmap. The Mali resolution timeline remains foggy, and cost pressures won’t vanish overnight. Some investors see a contrarian opportunity; others fear value traps. As one fund manager puts it: "Gold’s hot, but not all miners are created equal."
Key Questions for Barrick’s Earnings Call
How will the Mali crisis impact 2025 guidance?
Barrick must clarify contingency plans if the Loulo-Gounkoto dispute persists. Any guidance cut could spook markets.
Is the interim CEO prepared for long-term challenges?
Hill’s vision for Reko Diq and cost management will signal whether he’s a caretaker or a future leader.
Can Barrick close the performance gap with rivals?
Investors want specifics on operational improvements and capital allocation.
