Red September Roars Back With Vengeance - Crypto Markets Brace for Impact

The ghost of Septembers past just materialized with brutal force—digital asset markets are bleeding crimson as the calendar flips to autumn.

Historical Patterns Resurface

Traders waking up to portfolio statements might need smelling salts. That seasonal weakness everyone hoped would skip 2025? It's crashing the party with unmistakable fury.

Market Mechanics Under Microscope

Liquidity's evaporating faster than a meme coin's utility. Leveraged positions are getting obliterated in cascading liquidations that echo through every trading desk. The 'buy the dip' crowd? Suddenly quieter than a central banker during a policy misstep.

Institutional Response Tactics

Hedge funds that piled in during Q2 are now executing damage control protocols usually reserved for traditional market crashes. The correlation breakdown everyone celebrated? Vanished like last cycle's NFT floor prices.

Silver Linings in the Carnage

Blockchain doesn't care about your portfolio—transactions keep finalizing while paper gains dissolve. Decentralized exchanges are seeing volume spikes as traders bypass crumbling centralized platforms. The tech keeps working even when the charts look ugly.

September's tradition of separating tourists from builders is alive and well. Just remember—Wall Street analysts will still call this 'healthy consolidation' while their banking clients quietly accumulate at wholesale prices.

In brief

• September is living up to its bearish reputation, with a sharp reversal across major crypto assets.
• Bitcoin has dropped below $113,000, threatening a key psychological support and reviving fears of another “Red September.”
• Technical indicators — RSI, ADX, moving averages — all point to a significant weakening of the bullish trend.
• A deeper correction remains on the table if key support levels fail in the coming days.

Technical indicators of growing bearish pressure

This Monday, Bitcoin closed the session at $112,769, down 2.19 % on the day, after briefly plunging to $111,986 following massive liquidations. This decline brings the crypto closer to the monthly red zone : a drop of only 4 % more would put September in the red, thus reviving a seasonal dynamic well known to investors.

Indeed, September is historically the worst month of the year for the market. The entire crypto market has not been spared. Total capitalization has lost 3.8 %, dropping below the $4 trillion mark. Meanwhile, traditional markets are holding up : the S&P 500 rises by 0.5 %, reaching 6,690 points, confirming a marked decoupling from cryptos.

Technical data reflect a clear exhaustion of the bullish momentum. Several major indicators reveal the following information :

• The RSI (Relative Strength Index) : at 44, it indicates a weakening momentum, as sellers dominate as long as the indicator stays below 50 ;

• The ADX (Average Directional Index) : at 17, it signals the absence of a clear trend ;

• The exponential moving averages (EMA) : The technical structure theoretically remains bullish (EMA50 > EMA200), but the current price is below the EMA50, which is unfavorable for buyers ;

• The Squeeze Momentum Indicator : reflects a consolidation phase without clear direction, often a precursor to sudden movements to come.

In the very short term, several key technical levels deserve particular attention : a first support is at $111,000, corresponding to the day’s low, while the true floor lies at $108,500. On the resistance side, the levels to break are $115,000 for an immediate rebound, and $118,000 to hope for a more structural reversal.

These signals confirm the loss of initiative by buyers, in a market environment where the absence of clear direction could lead to a sharp increase in volatility.

A fractured Bitcoin market : investor sentiment in full divergence

Beyond the technical signals, it is also the analysis of market sentiment that completes the current picture. The crypto Fear & Greed Index shows a score of 45, the lowest score recorded since the beginning of the month.

Although this level remains in the neutral zone, it reveals a gradual shift towards caution, even worry. This growing gap between technical analysis and market sentiment is striking. Investors are still betting on a rebound, but on-chain data and the recent behavior of bitcoin prices depict a very different scenario.

The comparison with traditional markets accentuates this contrast. The S&P 500 index is currently NEAR its all-time highs, while cryptos are falling. This decoupling phenomenon may reflect a repositioning of capital, or a return of risk aversion towards more volatile assets like cryptos.

In the short term, the market remains deeply fractured, between bearish signals on one side and hopes for a rebound on the other. If the $112,000 support were to break decisively, a correction towards $108,500 or $105,000 could quickly begin. In the medium term, everything will depend on Bitcoin’s ability to maintain its bullish structure on moving averages, and above all, on the market’s reaction to a possible breach of the support.

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