Will $850B In The TGA Ignite The Next Massive Crypto Rally?

Massive Treasury cash pile sets stage for potential digital asset explosion.

Treasury General Account swelling to $850 billion creates perfect liquidity storm—traditional markets might get flooded, but crypto's poised to catch the overflow.

Historical patterns show when government coffers bulge, risk assets rally. Bitcoin and Ethereum typically lead the charge—altcoins follow like hungry sharks.

Market mechanics don't lie: excess liquidity seeks highest returns. Crypto's 24/7 markets and leverage opportunities outperform sleepy traditional finance every time.

Wall Street analysts already positioning—institutional money quietly building exposure while retail still sleeps on the opportunity.

Regulatory clarity finally emerging gives smart money confidence to deploy capital at scale. The old guard's compliance headaches become crypto's competitive advantage.

Remember: governments print, crypto absorbs. This isn't theory—it's mathematical inevitability wrapped in bureaucratic irony.

In brief

• Arthur Hayes states that crypto will enter a continuous rise when the US Treasury reaches $850B in its general account.
• The TGA already holds over $807B, a level close to the target set by Janet Yellen.
• According to Hayes, this accumulation acts as a ‘pump’ temporarily depriving markets of liquidity before reinjecting it.
• Analysts like André Dragosch challenge this view and consider the correlation between liquidity and Bitcoin misleading.

Arthur Hayes bets on a key threshold of the U.S. Treasury

While some investors predict an imminent crypto market crash, Arthur Hayes identified the U.S. Treasury as a central actor for the future market dynamics in a post published on September 20.

According to him, the liquidity accumulation in the Treasury general account (TGA) acts as a critical indicator for risky assets, including crypto.

• Hayes estimates that 850 billion dollars in the TGA would mark the trigger threshold : “once this level is reached, the crypto market will have only one direction: continuous rise”, he wrote ;
• The TGA already holds more than 807 billion dollars, quickly approaching the target set by Janet Yellen ;
• According to him, as long as the Treasury absorbs liquidity, “private markets are deprived of oxygen”. Once the threshold is reached, these flows would be released and could irrigate financial markets, including bitcoin.

TGA refill almost done – target is $850bn. With this liquidity drain complete, up only can resume. pic.twitter.com/LSVieKX2J8

Hayes summarizes this mechanism as a “pump” temporarily sucking capital. However, he believes this accumulation phase is temporary and will be followed by an influx of liquidity likely to trigger a sustained bullish phase.

Analysts’ doubts about the correlation

Not all observers share Arthur Hayes’s optimism. André Dragosch, head of research at Bitwise Asset Management, believes the impact of net liquidity on Bitcoin price remains marginal. “The correlation between liquidity and bitcoin is weak and misleading”, he said, calling for caution against oversimplified conclusions.

These critiques point out that crypto dynamics, especially bitcoin, do not depend solely on the Fed or the Treasury. Investor psychology, institutional flows, and regulation also play an equally important role. The recent volatility episode, which occurred after the rate cut announcement, is an illustration. Markets had already anticipated this decision and the reaction was not linear.

Ultimately, Hayes’s thesis presents an attractive scenario but is contested. If reaching the threshold of 850 billion dollars on the TGA were to coincide with a bullish recovery of Bitcoin and altcoins, it would not suffice to explain all the dynamics.

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