ETF Frenzy Ignites Ripple’s Explosive—But Fleeting—Breakout Rally

Ripple just rode the ETF hype wave to a blistering rally—only to watch gains evaporate faster than a meme coin’s promises.

The surge came as traders piled into XRP on speculation that an ETF approval could be next. Momentum built, liquidity flooded in, and for a brief moment, it felt like 2021 all over again.

Then reality hit.

Gains reversed, charts corrected, and the ‘brief breakout’ became another classic crypto tease—another case of buy the rumor, sell the news… before there even was news.

Classic crypto: where hope trades at a premium and patience isn’t in the whitepaper.

In brief

• XRP briefly crosses 3 dollars, carried by hopes of a 95 % probability ETF according to Bloomberg.
• The SEC is expected to make its decision in October, while hybrid ETF/ETN products could emerge beforehand.
• Despite speculation, real activity on the XRP Ledger remains low: only 2 % of Real World Assets are tokenized there.
• The market wonders: can XRP realistically aim for $3.60 without solid fundamentals supporting the rise?

The ETF effect : the engine of a sudden rise

The starting point of the recent surge in XRP is undoubtedly the announcement of an XRP ETF whose approval chances are assessed at 95 % by Bloomberg analysts.

This anticipation was enough to propel the crypto’s price up to 3.04 dollars, its highest level in two weeks. However, this movement did not last. The price immediately underwent a correction, a sign of increased volatility and an still uncertain market.

This enthusiasm is nevertheless fueled by the possible arrival of hybrid ETF/ETN products, like the REX-Osprey models, which could precede an official SEC validation, as was the case with the solana Staking (SSK) product. The US regulatory decision on XRP is expected by the end of October.

On-chain data supports this rise in euphoria, particularly on derivative products. A significant increase in institutional interest is thus observed, through several key indicators :

• The global open interest on XRP futures increased by 5 % over one month, reaching 2.69 billion tokens, equivalent to 7.91 billion dollars at current prices ;

• On the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), a platform popular with professional investors, outstanding futures contracts jumped 74 % in 30 days, reaching 386 million XRP ;

• Monthly contracts on XRP trade with an annualized premium of 7 % compared to the spot market, a level considered balanced and consistent with standards observed in recent weeks ;

• Long and short positions remain balanced, reminding that this type of indicator does not reflect a clear market direction.

The combination of these signals therefore seems to indicate a short-term renewed interest, but without excessive euphoria. The $3.60 target, reached last July, remains a possibility in case of effective ETF approval, but largely depends on upcoming regulatory realization.

Real adoption that does not follow price momentum

Beyond the announcement effect, the structural reality of the XRP ecosystem offers a striking contrast with speculative euphoria. Despite growing interest in the crypto, the XRP Ledger (XRPL) struggles to convince as a technology platform.

Ripple’s blockchain captures only 2 % of tokenized Real World Assets (RWA), ranking behind much smaller capitalization players such as Avalanche, Stellar, or Aptos. Moreover, the total value locked (TVL) on XRPL caps at 100 million dollars, a low figure compared to the standards of LAYER 1 blockchains, raising questions about the ecosystem’s ability to support widespread adoption.

Even the recent rise of Ripple’s native stablecoin, RLUSD, supposed to support demand on the network, remains problematic. Although over 700 million dollars have been issued, nearly 90% of this amount was issued on Ethereum, which greatly reduces the impact for the XRP Ledger itself.

At the same time, the overall stablecoin market is dominated by giants such as Circle (USDC) or World Liberty (USD1), whose liquidity and presence make competition particularly tough. These figures reflect a limited adoption of Ripple’s underlying technology, despite the speculative interest its crypto generates.

This persistent gap between the xrp price evolution and the weakness of fundamentals raises questions about the sustainability of the current momentum. If the crypto were to establish itself as a pillar of tokenization or cross-border payments, a rise in its on-chain use would be essential. To date, this usage remains limited. Even if an ETF can mechanically trigger a new short-term bullish surge, it seems unlikely that it alone will be enough to firmly anchor XRP among the leading blockchains that are truly used.

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